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- August CPI matched expectations, helping Bitcoin and Ether rebound, while the outlook for the Fed’s rate path remained broadly unchanged.
- Analysts said the durability of the current Bitcoin uptrend and potential pressure on the rally could hinge on core CPI and whether the Fed holds rates steady.
- With Solana ETFs drawing more than $500 million in net inflows, analysts said passage of the CLARITY Act could put Bitcoin at $100,000, Ether at $3,000, and Solana at $130.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin and Ether rebounded after the U.S. consumer price index for August came in broadly in line with market expectations, leaving the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s rate path largely intact.
The Block reported on September 11 that Bitcoin briefly approached $79,000 after the CPI release before trading around $77,800. Ether also moved above $2,500.
The U.S. Labor Department said August CPI rose 0.4% from a month earlier and 3.4% from a year earlier. Higher energy prices lifted headline inflation, but markets largely viewed the reading as insufficient to meaningfully alter expectations for the Fed’s September policy outlook.
Matt Mena, senior digital assets strategist at 21Shares, said Bitcoin has posted an average 2.13% gain over 30 days in past instances when core CPI came in above expectations. If the Fed leaves rates unchanged, the current uptrend could continue, he said.
Still, some cautioned that a stronger-than-expected core inflation reading could push rate expectations in a more hawkish direction again. Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, said the recent Bitcoin rally has been driven by institutional allocations rather than leverage, meaning an upside inflation surprise could weigh on the advance.
Louis Huang, an analyst at Bitget, pointed to firmer headline inflation driven by energy prices and relatively softer core inflation trends. For crypto markets, he said, the latest CPI did not provide a strong directional signal on rates. If Bitcoin holds above $76,270, that would indicate underlying demand remains solid.
Solana also extended its gains. Mena said Solana exchange-traded funds have recorded more than $500 million in net inflows this year, while the network handled more than 5 billion transactions last month. He said SOL could still climb to $130 in the fourth quarter.
He also said that if the CLARITY Act, a U.S. crypto market structure bill, is passed, Bitcoin could target $100,000, Ether $3,000 and Solana more than $130.
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Source: en.bloomingbit.io