While the answer may be both

Gold and Bitcoin have become increasingly prominent features of institutional portfolio discussions. According to the World Gold Council, Central banks have accumulated an average of around 1,000 tonnes of gold annually over the past four years (2022–2025), significantly above the roughly 500-tonne average of the preceding decade and helping drive the metal to successive record highs. Alongside this trend, Bitcoin has continued its evolution from a niche digital asset into an increasingly institutional asset class, supported by the launch of spot ETFs, growing corporate treasury adoption, and broader participation from institutional investors and traditional financial institutions.

Comparisons between the two assets are not new. For more than a decade, Bitcoin has been described as “digital gold,” often prompting debates about whether it could eventually rival or even replace gold as a store of value. But as the macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop has evolved, that framing has become less useful.

The more relevant question today is not whether gold or Bitcoin is superior. It is why an increasing number of investors are finding reasons to own both. This article examines the forces driving renewed interest in hard assets, the characteristics that connect gold and Bitcoin, and how their differing maturity profiles increasingly support complementary rather than competing portfolio roles.

Why the Comparison Matters More Today

A rapidly shifting macroeconomic backdrop has forced a re-evaluation of the “gold vs. Bitcoin” relationship. Over the past decade, ballooning sovereign debt and structural fiscal deficits have become permanent fixtures of developed economies, with the IMF projecting an average debt as a percent of GDP of 123.7% for G7 economies in 2026 (Figure 1). Concurrently, escalating geopolitical tensions have forced a sharp focus on reserve diversification and sovereign counterparty risk, breaking the assumptions that anchored portfolio construction for much of the post-crisis era.

Figure 1: G7 Sovereign Debt Trajectories and Structural Projections

This environment has accelerated the flight toward assets outside traditional sovereign liabilities, a shift that highlights the growing importance of convexity within portfolio construction. Most traditional assets are designed to perform under expected economic conditions. Convex assets, by contrast, derive much of their value from responding disproportionately to unexpected outcomes.

Gold has historically fulfilled this role as a reserve asset during periods of monetary instability, but Bitcoin is increasingly viewed through a similar lens, demonstrating a more volatile, yet significantly more pronounced, version of the same dynamic. Accordingly, allocators are evaluating gold and Bitcoin within a common hard-asset allocation framework by isolating the structural characteristics that connect the two assets, despite their distinct characteristics.

Different Assets, Shared Monetary DNA

Despite vastly different historical and technological origins, gold and Bitcoin are converging within the same hard-asset allocation framework. This co-location is driven not by identity, but by a shared set of scarce, non-sovereign structural traits that are difficult to replicate elsewhere in modern finance.

• Absolute Scarcity:Gold’s supply is physically constrained by geology, with above-ground stocks growing at a predictable 1–2% marginal rate via mining on an annual basis (Figure 2). Conversely, Bitcoin enforces scarcity through algorithmic code, operating on a transparent issuance schedule capped strictly at 21 million units with 95.5% of Bitcoin’s eventual supply already having been mined. While the mechanisms differ, both enforce a strict supply discipline that contrasts sharply with fiat monetary systems.
•Zero Counterparty Risk:Unlike bonds (claims on governments) or bank deposits (dependent on institutional solvency), gold and Bitcoin are held directly rather than owed by an intermediary. This lack of credit risk makes them structurally isolated from systemic financial failures.
• Monetary Premium: Neither asset’s valuation can be explained by utilitarian demand alone. Gold’s industrial applications represent only a fraction of its multi-trillion-dollar capitalization, just as Bitcoin’s transaction throughput does not fully account for its network value. In both instances, allocators assign a substantial premium to the asset’s structural capacity to preserve purchasing power over time.

Figure 2: Annual Supply Comparisons of Gold & Bitcoin

Tommaso Macuso

Tommaso Mancuso is Global Head of Investments at regulated digital asset investment manager 3iQ. Prior to 3iQ Tommaso co-founded and served as CIO of Shikuma Capital, a London-based global macro hedge fund. Whilst at Shikuma Capital, the firm was nominated for Best Macro Fund in the 2021 HFM Eurohedge Emerging Manager Awards.

Previously, Tommaso spent 12 years at Hermes Investment Management. He was executive director, Head of Multi Asset (a division he established in 2014) and member of the fixed income investment committee. He was responsible for managing all multi asset strategies including an original multi-asset approach to hedge inflation-risk, an absolute return strategy, and a multi asset ESG-focused strategy.

Before forming Hermes Multi Asset in 2014, Tommaso was a partner and Head of Portfolio Management at Hermes’ $2.5bn fund of hedge funds business (Hermes BPK). He joined Hermes in 2008 as Head of Research and macro strategy.

From 2001 to 2008 Tommaso was Global Head of Credit and Event Driven Strategies at Pioneer Alternative Investments in New York, responsible for an allocation of more than $3.5bn out of $8bn managed in fund of hedge funds by the firm. Tommaso spent a total of seven years at Pioneer Alternative Investments.

Tommaso has published several thought pieces on portfolio construction methodologies, inflation hedging tools and long-term driver of asset correlation. Tommaso graduated from Bocconi University in Milan with a degree in international financial markets.

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