Supply absorption ‘key question’ as Bitcoin fails to reclaim $80K: Analysis

Bitcoin ($BTC) remains sensitive to sell-side pressure at $80,000, even as investors broadly avoid mass profit-taking.

• Bitcoin investors’ unrealized profit and loss crosses above zero for all cohorts, apparently slowing price momentum.
• Long-term holders see a spike in profitability to 1.48, while short-term holders still account for the majority of in-profit coins moving onchain.
• The Coinbase premium fails to return to positive territory at -0.015, underscoring lackluster US demand.

Older Bitcoin investors reactivate around 14-week highs

Data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant reveals that older coins in particular moved onchain as $BTC/USD gained more than 25% over the past week.

The spent output profit ratio (SOPR), which is the ratio of the current value of recently spent UTXOs to their value at creation, ticked up to 1.48 on Aug. 22, indicating increased onchain activity involving in-profit coins.

As price consolidated around $79,500, the so-called SOPR ratio, which divides the SOPR of short-term holders (STH) by that of long-term holders (LTHs), hit 1.4, its highest reading since July 25. STH and LTH refer to wallets that hold $BTC without selling for up to six months (STH) or longer than six months (LTH).

“This suggests long-term holders were realizing profits at a higher relative rate than short-term holders. The ratio has since fallen to 0.93, indicating that short-term holders’ realized performance is now relatively stronger,” CryptoQuant commented about the latest readings in a blog post on Tuesday.

The SOPR ratio has formed a broad downtrend since early 2025, and at the end of June hit 0.62, its lowest levels in three years as $BTC/USD dropped to $58,000. Despite only reversing modestly higher, price has still failed to stay above $80,000.

CryptoQuant notes that all holder cohorts are now in profit on aggregate, presenting a potential hurdle to further gains that only sustained buyer support could overcome.

“The key question is not whether Bitcoin can briefly touch $80,000, but whether new demand can absorb selling from profitable holders,” it summarized, suggesting that this demand could come from ongoing return of inflows to the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Bitcoin unrealized profit/loss data by wallet cohort

US investor demand remains weak

Other data suggests that in spite of hitting local highs, Bitcoin has not yet convinced the broader investor base to return to the market.

CryptoQuant shows that the Coinbase premium — the difference in price between Coinbase’s and Binance’s $BTC/USDT pairs — remains negative, moving above its zero line just briefly on hourly time frames as price broke above $78,500.

“The next key signal will be whether the index can cross above zero and remain positive. If Bitcoin continues recovering while the Coinbase premium turns positive, the market could shift from ‘selling pressure is easing’ to a stronger phase of renewed U.S. spot demand,” CryptoQuant analysis stated this week.

The Coinbase premium reflects US investor demand and has been broadly negative throughout 2026. As of Wednesday, it measured -0.015, up from -0.094 at the start of August.

Bitcoin Coinbase premium index

Source: cryptonews.net