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More than 100 researchers working with AI coding agents have reduced the estimated computing resources needed for a key step in a potential quantum attack on <a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/singapore-man-22-admits-to-245m-bitcoin-heist-ring/” title=”Singapore Man, 22, Admits to $245M Bitcoin Heist Ring”>Bitcoin and Ethereum by more than half compared with a Google benchmark published in March. The ECDSA.Fail challenge, launched by Eigen Labs in late May, produced a quantum circuit using 1,151 logical qubits and about 1.3 million Toffoli gates, scoring roughly 1.5 billion. The research optimizes point addition within Shor’s algorithm, which could eventually derive private keys from exposed public keys. No existing quantum computer can use the result to break either network, but researchers warn that upgrades to quantum-resistant cryptography take years and cannot be applied retroactively.
Key Elements
A collaborative effort involving more than 100 researchers and AI coding agents has cut the estimated computing ren Bitcoin and Ethereum by more than half compared with a benchmark Google published in March, according to a paper released Wednesday
The work, which grew out of an open competition called ECDSA.Fail launched by blockchain infrastructure firm Eigen Labs in late May, produced a quantum circuit that uses 1,151 logical qubits and roughly 1.3 million Toffoli gates. The combined score of about 1.5 billion is less than half of the roughly 3 billion though the paper cautioned that differences in testing interfaces and accounting methods prevent a perfectly direct comparison
The circuit optimizes point addition, a calculation performed repeatedly inside Shor’s algorithm, the quantum method that could eventually turn an exposed public key into the private key behind it. A sufficiently powerful machine could then sign transactions as if it were the wallet’s owner. Bitcoin and Ethereum both rely on secp256k1, the elliptic curve targeted by the research.
Rapid improvement over eight weeks
The open challenge attracted researchers affiliated with the Ethereum Foundation, StarkWare, Theta Labs, MultiVM Labs, Trail of Bits, and other organizations. Over roughly eight weeks, participants submitted more than 400 accepted improvements, with each successful iteration becoming the starting point for the next contributor.
AI agents handled much of the implementation work, repeated testing, and smaller optimizations, while human researchers directed the overall research strategy and made larger design changes. The paper does not attempt to quantify exactly how much of the improvement came from humans versus AI.
“Beyond the resulting circuits, ECDSA.Fail provides a case study of Open Autoresearch: a verifier-gated research process in which human participants and AI agents iteratively generate, implement, test, and share candidate improvements against a common measurable objective,” the researchers wrote.
The headline result reflects a July 26 cutoff. The paper also reports a design adapted more closely to how Shor’s algorithm would actually use the calculation, scoring about 1.96 billion, still below Google’s reported figures. After the submission deadline, improvements continued: one later design pushed the score down to about 1.26 billion, while another reduced the logical qubit requirement to 813 at the cost of substantially more computation.
The researchers emphasized that the circuit covers only one major calculation within a full attack. It does not include physical error correction, the complete Shor’s algorithm, or hardware-specific costs of running on an actual quantum computer. No existing machine can use the result to break Bitcoin or Ethereum today.
The significance lies in a different direction: quantum hardware does not need to improve for the theoretical attack to get closer. Researchers can also reduce how much machine the attack requires.
“None of this is urgent because an attack is imminent,” lead author and Theta Labs CTO Jieyi Long said. “It is urgent because the remedy takes years and cannot be applied retroactively.”
StarkWare co-founder and CEO Eli Ben-Sasson struck a similar note, arguing that with the cost of breaking cryptography cut in half over two months, every assumption about when quantum computers might become a real threat needs to be revisited.
Broader context and industry response
The research arrives as the U.S. Commerce Department this week finalized CHIPS Act awards worth up to $100 million each for Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantinuum, taking minority stakes in all three companies. The funding targets the larger fault-tolerant machines that an attack would eventually require.
The quantum threat to cryptocurrency has drawn increasing industry attention. In July, Galaxy Digital committed up to $5 million to quantum defense research, while nine firms including BlackRock, Coinbase, and Strategy pledged a combined $15 million over three years for broader Bitcoin security research covering quantum defenses.
IonQ, a quantum computing developer, has estimated that a fault-tolerant machine with roughly 20,000 physical qubits could break secp256k1 encryption in 26 days. Coinbase’s advisory council estimated in June that approximately 7 million BTC sits in addresses with public keys exposed on-chain. Ethereum has set a target of completing its transition to quantum-resistant cryptography by December 2029.
The researchers noted that migration away from vulnerable cryptography is already under way. NIST has standardized post-quantum replacements, and an initial public draft of NIST IR 8547 proposes deprecating classical public-key algorithms at the 112-bit security level after 2030 and disallowing them after 2035.
The ECDSA.Fail challenge originated after Google Quantum AI published a proof showing the existence of a verified circuit in March but kept the circuit itself private. Eigen Labs built a public benchmark and leaderboard based on Google’s verification tool, opening the problem to a broader research community.
Key metrics from the research:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Initial challenge score (late May) | 10.75 billion |
| Headline result (July 26 cutoff) | 1.496 billion |
| Google Quantum AI March benchmark | ~3 billion |
| Leading circuit logical qubits | 1,151 |
| Leading circuit Toffoli gates | ~1.3 million |
| Post-deadline best score | ~1.26 billion |
| Post-deadline lowest qubit count | 813 |
Note: The paper cautioned that the comparison with Google’s benchmark is not perfectly like-for-like due to differences in interfaces and accounting rules.
The findings underscore a critical point for the cryptocurrency industry: the timeline for quantum threats is not determined solely by hardware progress. Software and algorithmic advances can bring the threat closer even as quantum machines remain in development. With migration timelines measured in years, researchers argue the work of preparing defenses cannot wait for a definitive Q-Day announcement.
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Source: finance.biggo.com