Miner Weekly: Bitcoin Leaves the AI Trade Behind

Bitcoin’s sharpest weekly advance in more than three years has reordered the digital-infrastructure trade, leaving most AI-linked stocks behind and reviving a handful of bitcoin miners that only recently faced pressure to keep their shares above exchange listing thresholds.

Bitcoin gained 22.49% over the month through early August 26, according to the TradingView comparison supplied by TheEnergyMag. Among the tracked equities, only Canaan (NASDAQ: CAN), American Bitcoin (NASDAQ: ABTC) and Cango (NYSE: CANG) did better, rising 66.99%, 53.71% and 40.96%, respectively. CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) gained 21.45%, Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) 17.10% and IREN 14.63%, while several miners that have emphasized AI and high-performance computing finished flat or lower.

The divergence is striking because capital had flowed the other way for much of 2026. Investors rewarded contracted AI capacity, power pipelines and data-center development while bitcoin struggled through a bear market. The latest rally reversed that hierarchy: direct exposure to bitcoin suddenly outperformed the promise of future AI revenue – at least for now.

The move began with a macro catalyst, but its speed came from positioning.

On August 19, the U.S. Treasury said it would at least double the maximum size of buybacks for older 10- to 30-year government securities, to $4 billion per operation from $2 billion, starting September 9. The stated aim was to support liquidity in the long end of the bond market. Yields initially fell, helping scarce assets including bitcoin and gold. A White House meeting with crypto executives the same day added a policy tailwind as President Donald Trump urged Congress to advance digital-asset market-structure legislation.

Bitcoin had spent weeks compressed near $62,000 to $65,000 while derivatives open interest climbed. When the catalyst arrived, that crowded setup unwound violently. More than $1.6 billion of crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, including more than $800 million of shorts in a single hour Bitcoin rose as much as 23% during the week and reached its highest level in three months

That makes the first leg of the rally easy to explain: it was a short squeeze. The more important question is why the move held initially.

The answer, so far, is spot demand. U.S. spot-bitcoin exchange-traded funds took in a net $1.92 billion from August 17 through August 21, their strongest week in roughly 10 months. Another $651.9 million arrived on August 24 and 25, bringing the seven-session total to about $2.57 billion, though the pace has notably decelerated.

The sub-$1 comeback

The three stocks that beat bitcoin were also three of the most stressed direct bitcoin exposures.

Canaan received a Nasdaq deficiency notice in January after staying below the exchange’s $1 minimum bid requirement. In July, Nasdaq transferred the listing to its Capital Market and granted the mining-machine maker and miner another 180 days, until January 11, 2027, to regain compliance.

Cango received an NYSE notice in March after its average closing price remained below $1 for 30 trading days. The company was given six months to cure the deficiency.

American Bitcoin did not receive the same formal sub-$1 deficiency notice. But the company preempted the move with a 1-for-15 reverse split in July.

Their rebound is therefore both a comeback and a warning about leverage. Low-priced mining stocks can move much faster than bitcoin because a higher bitcoin price can expand mining margins, lift the value of coin holdings and reduce immediate listing pressure at the same time.

What would confirm a cyclical bottom

One month of outperformance does not establish a paradigm shift. The coming weeks and months should provide a clearer test across several areas.

Spot demand must outlast the squeeze. ETF flows should remain positive on a multiweek basis after derivatives positioning normalizes. A rally led by spot buying is more durable than one driven by forced short covering. Renewed exchange inflows and repeated ETF outflow days would weaken the case.

Bitcoin needs to turn resistance into support. The $62,000-to-$65,000 area became a large on-chain cost-basis cluster during the summer. A constructive pattern would be a higher low above that base, followed by sustained trading above the August breakout zone. A rapid return into the old range would suggest the move was mainly mechanical.

On-chain profitability should recover without euphoric distribution. Watch realized capitalization, MVRV, adjusted spent-output profit ratio and the behavior of long-term holders. The healthier sequence is rising realized capital, spending at modest profits and enough new demand to absorb sales from older holders. A surge in coins moving to exchanges alongside extreme unrealized profits would raise late-cycle risk.

Leverage should rebuild slowly, if at all. Futures open interest reached about 220,000 bitcoin before the August squeeze. Funding rates, options skew and the futures-to-spot volume ratio should cool while price holds. If open interest races back to its prior high and perpetual funding becomes expensive, the rally will again be vulnerable to liquidation rather than supported by cash buyers.

For now, the evidence is stronger than it was during bitcoin’s failed rebound in May: ETF demand is greater, exchange balances are moving in a constructive direction and the market has reclaimed levels lost during the spring decline. But the rally began with an official bond-market intervention and a historic short squeeze. That is a catalyst, not yet proof of a cycle change.

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Source: theenergymag.com