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Markets are pricing a roughly 93% chance that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%.
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Bitcoin is trading around $76,000 after falling 4% on Tuesday, while the 10-year Treasury yield has approached 5%.
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For crypto markets, the Fed’s updated rate projections and Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments may matter more than the widely expected hike itself.
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates Today for the first time since 2023, but for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, the rate decision itself may not be the biggest event of the day.
Instead, traders will be watching what comes next.
Markets are pricing in a 92.7% probability of a 25-basis-point increase, which would lift the federal funds target range from 3.50%–3.75% to 3.75%–4.00% That probability has jumped from just 61.2% a week ago, showing how quickly expectations have shifted
A Reuters poll published Monday similarly found that 86 of 101 economists, or 85%, expected a quarter-point hike at the Sept. 15–16 meeting.
With the hike now heavily priced into financial markets, attention is shifting toward the Fed’s updated economic projections, particularly the dot plot, which shows where individual policymakers expect interest rates to go.
For crypto investors, those dots could provide a much stronger signal than Today’s headline rate move.
Bitcoin Enters Fed Decision Near $76,000
Crypto markets are already entering the decision under pressure.
Bitcoin was trading around $75,954 on Wednesday, after dropping roughly 4% Tuesday Ether was near $2,411 after falling 6.3% in the previous session
The moves have not occurred in isolation.
Bond yields have climbed sharply as investors reassess how long U.S. monetary policy could remain restrictive.
The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.041% on Tuesday, its highest level since 2007, before easing back to around 4.97% Today.
Official Federal Reserve data show how rapidly yields have moved across the curve. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.80% on Sept. 8, rising to 4.97% by Sept. 14. Over the same period, the two-year yield increased from 4.39% to 4.65%.
That matters for Bitcoin because higher Treasury yields increase the returns investors can obtain from comparatively lower-risk government debt, potentially making non-yielding assets less attractive at the margin.
Why the Fed Is Considering Another Hike
The sharp reversal in expectations largely reflects renewed inflation concerns.
Source: finance.yahoo.com