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<a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/bitcoin-dumps-below-77k-as-us-iran-strikes-resume-who-else-might-be-behind-the-drop/” title=”Bitcoin Dumps Below $77K as US-Iran Strikes Resume: Who Else Might Be Behind the Drop?”>Bitcoin closed August with a gain of more than 25%, marking its strongest August rally since 2017 and breaking a nine-year pattern of seasonal weakness in a month traditionally known for poor returns. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $1.92 billion in a single week, while large-scale investors accumulated an additional 39,154 BTC over the same period. The breakout above the 200-day moving average and a wave of short liquidations accelerated the rally. However, the RSI entering overbought territory at 72 and prices still trading roughly 30% below year-start levels are cited as grounds for caution.
Key Elements
Bitcoin closed out August—a month traditionally known as a “weak season” for the cryptocurrency—with a gain exceeding 25%, delivering its strongest August rally in nine years. The price started the month around $62,000, briefly surged past $81,000, and then gave back some gains to finish August in the $78,000–$79,000 range.
This monthly gain is the largest since August 2017, when Bitcoin jumped roughly 65%. The move is particularly notable because August has historically been one of the worst months for Bitcoin, with a median return of approximately -7% since 2013.
The primary driver behind the rally was institutional capital. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $1.92 billion (~2.6 trillion won) during the week when the uptrend gained momentum. On a monthly basis, cumulative inflows through the 28th reached roughly $3.3 billion (~4.5 trillion won).
On-chain data also clearly captured aggressive buying by large investors. According to analysis from Santiment, so-called “whales”—holders of massive Bitcoin positions—accumulated an additional 39,154 BTC over the past week. At current prices, that amounts to approximately $3 billion (~4.1 trillion won). Total whale holdings now approach 5.22 million BTC.
In contrast, retail investors moved to lock in profits. Addresses holding between 0.1 and 1 BTC posted a cumulative score of -0.982, indicating a clear selling bias. This suggests that despite short-term sell pressure following the sharp rally, demand from large holders is providing underlying support for the market.
Technical indicators also reinforced the upward move. Bitcoin broke above its 200-day moving average—a key trend line—at approximately $69,000 (~95 million won). During the rally, roughly $2.75 billion (~3.8 trillion won) worth of short positions were liquidated in a single day, accelerating the price surge.
In the short-term technical picture, the $78,250–$78,350 zone is identified as a key resistance area. A breakout above this range could open the path to $79,000, $80,000, and potentially $81,000. Conversely, a drop below $77,200 risks further downside toward the $76,000–$77,000 range, with $75,700 cited as the critical support level.
Overheating signals are also emerging. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) stands at 72, above the 70 threshold that marks overbought territory, while the stochastic %K reads 82, hinting at a possible reversal. The ADX at 41 indicates the trend remains intact, but some analysts note the price has extended too far in the short term. The MACD continues to flash a buy signal, though momentum appears to be weakening.
Some market participants believe the recent rally is losing steam. If Bitcoin remains below $78,300, the correction could be prolonged. From a defensive standpoint, the $78,000–$79,200 zone may act as strong resistance; rejection at this level could push prices down to $75,500 and $72,800. On the flip side, a sustained hold above $80,500 on the 4-hour chart could be interpreted as a signal that buyers have regained control.
That said, even after this sharp rally, Bitcoin remains roughly 30% below its level at the start of the year. The gap from last year’s record high also remains wide, prompting caution among some observers who argue it is too early to conclude that the recent uptrend marks a genuine trend reversal.
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Source: finance.biggo.com