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Bitcoin reclaimed the $70,000 level following a sharp rally on the 19th, while the movement of UTXOs in profit on Binance reached an all-time high. Short-term holders, emboldened by prices surpassing their average cost basis of $67,100, sent 44,300 BTC to exchanges—the largest such transfer in 2026. The surge was fueled by the U.S. Treasury Department’s doubling of its long-term bond buyback program and President Trump’s White House meeting with crypto industry figures. Trump signaled that the U.S. government is “discussing” accumulating a large Bitcoin reserve and urged Congress to pass the Clarity Act. According to CryptoQuant, 30-day apparent spot demand has recovered from roughly -206,000 BTC to approximately -5,000 BTC, with spot and futures demand turning positive simultaneously for the first time in months. Glassnode characterized the rally as the largest since October 2023. The key question ahead is whether buyers can absorb supply near short-term holders’ breakeven level.
Key Elements
Bitcoin’s sharp rally on the 19th propelled the cryptocurrency back above the $70,000 mark, even as short-term holders engaged in profit-taking on an unprecedented scale. According to MorenoDV, a registered analyst at leading on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, the movement of UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs) in a state of unrealized profit surpassed the previous all-time high on Binance, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges.
UTXOs refer to transaction units that remain unspent on Bitcoin’s transaction ledger. Analyzing their movement serves as foundational on-chain data for gauging market participants’ unrealized gains and losses. MorenoDV noted that while the previous record was observed near Bitcoin’s all-time high, the current situation differs in that it is occurring as price rebounds toward short-term holders’ average cost basis.
This level represents the average acquisition cost of recent buyers and is considered a critical psychological threshold for market sentiment. For short-term holders who had been underwater for several weeks, an opportunity is emerging to recover capital without locking in losses. MorenoDV analyzed that the surge in UTXOs in profit suggests selling capacity from investors freed from unrealized losses may already be mobilizing. However, he also cautioned that not all coins moved necessarily represent sales.
Policy Catalysts and Improving Spot Demand Behind the Rebound
The sharp rally on the 19th was attributed to the U.S. Treasury Department’s doubling of its long-term bond buyback program and President Trump’s White House meeting with cryptocurrency industry figures. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an expansion of the buyback cap from $2 billion (approximately ¥320 billion) to $4 billion (approximately ¥640 billion) per operation, triggering a decline in long-term interest rates.
At the same meeting, Trump stated that the U.S. government accumulating a large Bitcoin reserve is “being discussed.” He further expressed the view that Bitcoin is allee currency. He urged Congress to pass the Clarity Act, a crypto market structure bill, and also indicated that regulators want to attract derivatives exchange Hyperliquid to the United States
On-chain analyst Darkfost pointed out on the 19th that short-term holders sent 44,300 BTC to exchanges for profit-taking purposes. This transfer volume is the largest so far in 2026. Short-term holders’ average cost basis stands at approximately $67,100, and Bitcoin’s move above this level on the same day encouraged profit-taking. Short-term holders are an on-chain analytical classification referring to investors holding Bitcoin acquired within the past 155 days, a cohort known for concentrating profit-taking sell-offs at market turning points.
Bitcoin rose 7.1% on a closing basis on the 19th compared to the previous day. During trading, gains briefly expanded to over 7.7%, marking the largest single-day advance since February 6, according to investing information site Investing.com. The price extended gains to $72,000 yesterday, clearly surpassing the short-term holder cost basis of approximately $67,100.
According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the daily rally equated to 5.8 sigma relative to 30-day volatility, the largest since October 2023. Unlike the February rebound, this advance was notable for occurring without a preceding sharp decline.
Signs of Improvement in Spot Demand
According to CryptoQuant’s latest report, Bitcoin’s 30-day apparent spot demand has rapidly recovered from approximately -206,000 BTC on July 23 to roughly -5,000 BTC currently. A turn into positive territory would mark the first shift from “net distribution” to “net accumulation” in 30-day spot demand since February 2026.
The combined 30-day totals for spot demand and perpetual futures demand have both exceeded zero for the first time in months. From April through May, futures demand remained positive while spot demand stayed negative. CryptoQuant cautioned that while leverage can move prices, it cannot sustain them, and noted that recent figures remain shallow, with both indicators hovering near zero.
Historical data shows that in independent instances where spot demand flipped from negative to positive, Bitcoin’s median 60-day forward return was +18.1%, with a positive rate of 78%. When perpetual futures demand similarly flipped, the median 60-day forward return was only +3.6%, with a positive rate of 53%. Furthermore, combined spot and futures total demand showed a median 60-day forward return of -0.8%, indicating that it has been the recovery in spot demand that has led to sustained price appreciation.
The current market environment is in a bearish phase, with MVRV below its 365-day moving average. In past instances where spot demand flipped from negative to positive during such phases, the median 60-day forward return was +23.3%, with a positive rate of 87%. In bullish phases, the median was +10.5% with a positive rate of 67%, suggesting that the return of spot accumulation at lower valuation levels has historically led to stronger price appreciation.
Absorption Capacity Is the Key Focus
The key focus going forward is whether Bitcoin can sustain its position above short-term holders’ cost basis. Additionally, whether SOPR (the realized profit/loss ratio of spent UTXOs) can maintain levels above 1, and whether spot demand improves, will serve as key indicators. MorenoDV analyzed that if these conditions are met, it would indicate that buyers are absorbing supply near the breakeven level. Conversely, a break below this level could see holders who gained the opportunity to lock in profits become the source of selling pressure.
The risk assessment of the analytical tools used by MorenoDV is classified as “elevated,” positioning the current situation as one where record unrealized profit movement and short-term holder breakeven pressure are converging.
While the recovery in spot demand suggests a shift away from a “buyer-less” state, 30-day apparent spot demand has yet to clearly exceed zero. CryptoQuant also explained that the results presented are based on historical relationships from a limited number of past independent instances and do not guarantee future price appreciation.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin broke through $66,000, $68,000, and $70,000 in succession, reaching $71,119.49. The most recent candlestick reached $71,425.55, with the RSI at 88.69 indicating overbought conditions. The MACD line stood at 1,643.75, above the signal line at 1,005.81, with the positive histogram expanding to approximately 637.93. The $70,000 level is viewed as support, with $71,425 as the nearest resistance. A break below $70,000 would see support zones at $68,000, and the $66,000 to $65,000 range.
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Source: finance.biggo.com