Bitcoin Retakes $80,000 After Waller Signals A Hold

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he would be inclined to support leaving rates unchanged this month if the next two weeks of data hold, and Polymarket traders went from pricing a September increase at 59% on Wednesday to 43%. Bitcoin rose 4.8%, gold 2% and the S&P 500 0.46%.
By:The Defiant Team•
Markets

Bitcoin traded back above $80,000 on Thursday morning after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he could support holding rates steady in September, unwinding a week in which traders had made an increase the favorite.

The repricing runs directly against the positioning that followed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Aug. 28, which pushed bitcoin below $78,000 and made a September increase the favorite over the following sessions. Gold, equities and Treasuries all moved the same way Thursday. Bitcoin moved furthest.

Bitcoin last changed hands at $80,510, up 4.8% over 24 hours and 1.1% over seven days, after ranging between $76,858.60 and $80,847.07, CoinGecko data shows. Ether was at $2,486.42, up 4.3% on the day and down 0.5% on the week. XRP added 8.8% to $1.45, Solana 5.9% to $104.48 and BNB 5.1% to $718.99. Total crypto market value stood at $2.74 trillion on $76.33 billion of volume, with bitcoin dominance at 58.93% against $2.67 trillion on Wednesday morning

Waller Would Hold

Waller set out the condition in an appearance at a Reuters NEXT newsmaker interview in Washington on Thursday, in remarks the Fed published under the title “The Economic Outlook and Some Comments on My Policy Communication.”

“If this continues in the data due over the next two weeks, I would be inclined to support holding the target for the federal funds rate at its current setting,” he said.

He tied the decision to one release. “So my decision on the appropriate stance of policy will be heavily influenced by what we learn about August inflation,” he said. August CPI publishes Sept. 11, four days before the FOMC convenes.

Waller did not describe inflation as solved. “Three-month core inflation is 3.05 percent for the three months through July, a level that is still not consistent with the FOMC’s 2 percent goal,” he said. On employment: “Turning to the labor market, it is also in satisfactory shape…the unemployment rate has fallen a bit to 4.1 percent in July, a historically low rate.”

Polymarket put no change at the Sept. 15-16 meeting at 56% and a quarter-point increase at 43% on $84.2 million of event volume, against 41% and 59% on $78.1 million on Wednesday. A cut of any size trades below 1% on the venue.

Services Prices Run Hot

The data released the same morning argued the other way.

The ISM Services PMI registered 55.4% in August, up 1.3 percentage points from July’s 54.1%, according to the Institute for Supply Management. Business Activity rose to 61.7% from 59.1% and New Orders to 60.9% from 57.2%. Employment stayed in contraction at 47.8%.

The price component ran hottest. The Prices Index “registered 72.6 percent, broke the 70-percent threshold for the fifth time in six months and hit its highest level since August 2022,” said Steve Miller, chair of ISM’s Services Business Survey Committee.

Initial jobless claims were 206,000 for the week ending Aug. 29, an increase of 2,000 from the prior week’s revised level, with the four-week average at 207,250 and continuing claims at 1,779,000, Labor Department data shows. August non-farm payrolls publish Friday.

Yields And Gold Follow

The 10-year Treasury yield traded at 4.754%, down about three basis points on the day, after closing at 4.79% on Wednesday alongside the 30-year at 5.27% and the two-year at 4.39%, Treasury data shows. Wednesday’s 10-year close matched Tuesday’s, the highest since January 2025.

Spot gold rose 2.04% to $4,477.12 an ounce, from $4,365.11 on Wednesday. Equities gained less than crypto: the S&P 500 was at 7,688.32, up 0.46%, the Nasdaq 100 at 29,047.72, up 0.23%, and the Dow at 53,343.72, up 0.56%

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index read 65 on Thursday, from 63 on Wednesday and 69 on Tuesday It has stayed in greed since Aug. 20

DeFi total value locked stood at $84.96 billion, DefiLlama data shows. Stablecoin supply reached $303.89 billion, up 0.06% over seven days, or $176.2 million of net issuance, and 1.31% over 30 days

Resilience, Then A Breakout

Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, wrote in commentary sent to reporters at 9:12 a.m. ET Thursday, before bitcoin cleared $80,000, that the token had absorbed the macro shock without breaking.

“Bitcoin holding around $77,000 is notable given the macro backdrop. WTI is above $90, the US 10-year yield is near 4.8% and Middle East tensions have intensified, yet Bitcoin is only around 3-4% below its late-August levels near $80,000,” he wrote. “What stands out is not that Bitcoin has avoided the sell-off entirely, but that the macro shock has so far failed to trigger a more pronounced crypto sell-off.”

He credited positioning rather than demand.

“Recent liquidations have reduced some of the excess leverage in the market, perpetual funding remains moderate, and recent ETF demand has provided an additional spot-market cushion even as daily flows have become more mixed,” Lee wrote. He named the test ahead: “If Bitcoin can continue holding the $76,000-$77,000 area while ETF demand stabilises and funding remains contained, it would strengthen the case that spot-led demand, rather than leverage, is supporting the market.”

Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, took the other side in comments sent Wednesday afternoon. “With talk of increasing USD rates, there is heightened risk that markets will trend lower and the $80k resistance level will remain in place,” he wrote. He also flagged the options market: “there is a healthy amount of IBIT puts betting on a drawdown back to early August levels with a mid-September expiry that looks ominous.”

ETFs Turn Back Positive

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs took in $101.1 million on Wednesday after $236.5 million of outflows on Tuesday and $216.7 million of inflows on Monday. Thursday’s figures publish after the U.S. close

Spot ether ETFs lost $23.5 million on Wednesday, against $8.6 million of inflows on Tuesday and $87.6 million on Monday. Grayscale’s ETHE accounted for the Wednesday decline.

Lighter And Arbitrum Lead

Arbitrum extended the largest weekly gain among the 100 biggest tokens to 46.7%, with a market value of $885.2 million. The token rose 25% on Tuesday after fees on Robinhood Chain doubled, taking the Arbitrum DAO’s contractual 10% cut of that revenue to roughly $192,000 a day.

Lighter’s LIT reached a $1.019 billion market value on $115.6 million of volume, ranging between $3.59 and $4.08 over 24 hours. Founder Vladimir Novakovski holds one of the 43 seats on the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee, which met for the first time on Aug. 20; neither the exchange nor the agency has announced a U.S. perpetuals offering.

XRP led the ten largest tokens with an 8.8% gain and is 0.7% higher on the week, ranging from $1.33 to $1.47. Zcash rose 8.1% to $876.51 and holds a 9.3% weekly gain, while Monero fell. The Defiant tracked the pair’s rally as ZEC cleared $700.

The Few That Fell

Decliners were scarce among the 100 largest tokens, and the deepest loss was 1.4%.

Morpho fell furthest, at a $1.675 billion market value and down 7.4% over seven days. The lender holds $9.49 billion of total value locked, up 24.7% over 30 days, so the token has fallen while deposits have grown.

Monero’s 0.8% decline came against a 13% weekly gain, the strongest week among the 20 largest tokens. Beldex, the other privacy token in the top 100, fell 0.5% and is 1.9% lower on the week. JUST, on Tron, is 7.2% higher over seven days.

Prices and market data as of 12:55 p.m. ET on Sept. 3, 2026. Token prices, percentage changes and 24-hour ranges from CoinGecko; aggregate market value, volume and dominance from CoinGecko’s global charts; total value locked and stablecoin supply from DefiLlama; ETF flows from Farside Investors.

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Source: thedefiant.io