Bitcoin Attempts to Settle Above $77,000… Expectations Build for Breakout Past $80,000

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Bitcoin is consolidating around the $77,000 level as it builds a base for a potential breakout past $80,000. After surging more than 23% last week, the cryptocurrency is undergoing a short-term cooldown, but optimism for further gains is spreading as expectations for U.S. crypto regulation under the CLARITY Act converge with institutional inflows through spot ETFs. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs saw combined net inflows of $2.6 billion in a single week, with BlackRock’s IBIT absorbing $503 million in one day to lead institutional demand. Market participants see a stronger case for an $80,000 breakout if support forms around $75,000, while prediction market users remain conservative, projecting a year-end price near $75,000. This week’s key catalysts include Nvidia earnings, the Jackson Hole symposium, and U.S. core PCE data.

Key Elements

Bitcoin is consolidating around the $77,000 level as it builds a base for a potential breakout past $80,000. After surging more than 23% in a short span last week, the cryptocurrency is cooling off from overheated conditions, but optimism for further gains is spreading as expectations for U.S. crypto institutionalization converge with institutional capital inflows.

As of 9:50 a.m. on the 24th, Bitcoin was trading at 106.16 million won on the South Korean exchange Bithumb, up 0.30% from 24 hours earlier. In dollar terms, it was moving around the $77,000 level. On the crypto market data site CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was up 0.22% over 24 hours at $77,498.

Bitcoin, which was sitting at $62,883 as recently as the 16th, surged 23.5% in roughly a week, breaking above the $79,000 level around 6 p.m. on the 21st. It has since undergone a modest pullback and is now oscillating around $77,000.

Ethereum rose 0.96% at the same time, while Binance Coin gained 0.27%. In contrast, Ripple and Solana, which had seen steeper rallies, traded down 0.23% and 1.55% respectively, with profit-taking selling emerging.

Policy Momentum and Institutional Inflows

The trigger for this rally was expectations for the institutionalization of the U.S. crypto market. President Donald Trump urged swift passage of the “CLARITY Act,” which would clarify the regulatory framework for digital assets and the roles of oversight agencies, at a White House event on the 19th, saying, “Congress must pass the CLARITY Act and move to the next step.”

Market participants see the legislative prospects for the CLARITY Act becoming more tangible after Senate Majority Leader John Thune confirmed a vote scheduled for the 15th of next month. Expectations that institutionalization would lower entry barriers for institutional investors have lifted investor sentiment.

The U.S. Treasury Department’s announcement that it would at least double the size of its long-term Treasury buyback program also lent support to the rally. The analysis is that when the government purchases long-term Treasuries, selling pressure in the bond market eases and the rise in long-term yields is curbed, restoring risk appetite. Kim Ji-won, an analyst at KB Securities, said, “Bitcoin broke out of a trading range that had persisted for more than 10 weeks on policy momentum and expectations of expanded liquidity.”

Institutional inflows through spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were also notable. According to crypto media outlet The Block, U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs saw combined net inflows of $2.6 billion (approximately 3.6 trillion won) over the prior week — the largest weekly inflow since October of last year.

Bitcoin spot ETFs took in $1.9 billion, while Ethereum spot ETFs attracted $697.2 million. This stands in stark contrast to the prior week, when the two product categories saw combined net outflows of $392 million. Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for five consecutive trading days, pulling in approximately $1.92 billion.

Notably, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), managed by BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, absorbed approximately $503 million on the 20th alone. That accounted for more than 80% of the roughly $606.3 million in total net inflows into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs that day.

A Signal of Entering a Bull Market?

Ki Young Ju, founder of on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, said, “The current Bitcoin trend is quite robust, and this kind of rebound in a bear market is typically interpreted as a sign that a bottom has been formed,” adding, “There may be temporary corrections, but the bear market appears to be effectively over.”

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez also noted on social media platform X, “In the last two bear market cycles, one of the characteristics signaling the end of a Bitcoin bear market was an explosive weekly reversal.” Citing examples of Bitcoin rising 31.98% in a single week in 2019 and 24.9% in 2023, he analyzed, “If history repeats itself, this powerful weekly rally could be an early signal that Bitcoin has entered a new upward cycle.”

Crypto asset manager Grayscale also assessed that the past week’s surge could mark a turning point for the Bitcoin bear market. Grayscale explained, “Historically, Bitcoin has often formed bottoms after declining roughly 80% from cycle highs, but in the recent bear market, the drawdown from the peak was only about 50%,” adding, “This rebound demonstrates the possibility of a more solid bottom forming.”

Wall Street heavyweights have also voiced favorable stances on Bitcoin. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of America’s leading hedge funds, advised investing in Bitcoin to hedge against risks stemming from the U.S. debt crisis, saying, “I expect currencies that governments do not create, like gold or Bitcoin, to perform relatively well.”

However, skepticism about a sustained uptrend remains. According to CNBC, users of the U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi expect Bitcoin to end the year around $75,000. Despite Bitcoin’s surge of more than 20% in a week, a majority of investors still believe a sustained upward trend will be difficult to maintain.

The Key to Breaking $80,000

Market participants are watching whether Bitcoin can settle into the $75,000–$77,000 range in the near term. The view is that if Bitcoin completes its consolidation and forms price support around $75,000, the likelihood of breaking through the recent high of $79,500 and surpassing $80,000 increases.

This week features a series of major events that will determine the future direction. Nvidia’s earnings release — the company widely considered the bellwether of AI — Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole economic policy symposium, and the release of U.S. July core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data are all on deck. The Fed’s rate path and inflation indicators are variables that directly influence dollar strength and risk appetite.

Japan’s monetary policy is also a factor to watch. Unlike other major central banks, the Bank of Japan has maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy, causing the yen to depreciate 15% against the dollar this year. Analysts suggest that if yen weakness persists, funds could flow into Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation.

The Fear & Greed Index, which measures crypto market sentiment, is showing “Greed” at 73 points. The closer the index is to 0, the more likely investors are in a state of fear and prone to overselling, while readings near 100 suggest a higher probability of a market correction.

Meanwhile, the “kimchi premium” — the price gap between South Korean and overseas exchanges — stood at -0.92%. A negative kimchi premium means Bitcoin is trading cheaper in South Korea than abroad.

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Source: finance.biggo.com