Bitcoin Analyst Warns 40% BTC Price Dump Amid US

Bitcoin Analyst Warns 40% BTC Price Dump Amid US–Iran Escalation | FXEmpire
Advertisement
Advertisement

Bitcoin Analyst Warns 40% BTC Price Dump Amid US–Iran Escalation

By: Yashu Gola
Updated: Aug 31, 2026, 11:53 GMT+00:00
Live PriceBitcoin

Key Points:

• Analyst Midas warns Bitcoin could repeat May’s roughly 40% decline, potentially sending BTC toward $54,000.
• Renewed US–Iran tensions and rising oil prices are boosting inflation risks as September Fed hike odds climb to 61.9%.
• Bitcoin’s four-hour symmetrical triangle could break toward $74,800 unless BTC clears resistance near $80,000.

• -0.07%Bitcoin Forecast

Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded more than 35% over the past two months, but analyst Midas says the rally may be nearing exhaustion just as renewed US–Iran tensions add fresh pressure to risk assets.

Midas Says Bitcoin Could Fall Toward $54,000

In a Monday post, Midas highlighted a bearish divergence between Bitcoin’s price and its relative strength index (RSI).

For beginners, RSI is a momentum indicator that measures how aggressively an asset has been bought or sold. Readings above 70 are generally considered overbought, meaning the rally may have moved too far, too quickly.

Bitcoin’s RSI has recently climbed above 80, even as BTC approaches the same broad resistance zone that capped its previous advance. That creates a bearish divergence: price remains strong, but momentum is becoming increasingly stretched.

Midas compares the setup with May, when Bitcoin showed a similar divergence near its highs before falling roughly 40%.

He argues the current setup looks “mega overheated” because RSI has reached higher levels this time.

BTC may look bullish in the short term, but unless it can convincingly break and hold above $83,000, the larger bearish trend remains intact

Another roughly 40% decline from the latest highs could send Bitcoin toward $54,000 if the May pattern repeats.

US–Iran Escalation Adds Another Risk for Bitcoin

Midas’ bearish warning also comes as tensions between the US and Iran flare again.

US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island near the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, prompting retaliatory attacks from Tehran. The renewed fighting sent Brent crude above $90 a barrel as traders priced in greater risks to oil supplies through the crucial shipping route.

For Bitcoin, the bigger concern is what higher oil prices could mean for inflation.

A prolonged energy-price shock could make it harder for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy, keeping interest rates elevated.

Rate futures now price a 61.9% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the Sept. 16 meeting, up from 41.4% a week ago. The shift followed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole remarks, where he stressed that inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target.

For Bitcoin, that combination matters because higher rates tighten financial conditions and can reduce demand for risk assets.

Bitcoin Symmetrical Triangle Adds to Downside Risk

The bearish fundamental backdrop also coincides with a potential symmetrical triangle breakdown on Bitcoin’s four-hour chart.

BTC is consolidating between converging trendlines near $78,600, while its 50-period EMA around $77,400 is providing immediate support. A decisive break below the triangle’s lower trendline and the 50-period EMA (red) could confirm weakening momentum.

The first downside target sits near $74,800, close to Bitcoin’s 100-period EMA (purple) around $74,570. Conversely, a breakout above the triangle’s upper trendline near $80,000 would invalidate the immediate bearish setup.

About the Author

Yashu GolaSenior Cryptocurrencies Analyst

Yashu Gola is a crypto journalist and analyst with expertise in digital assets, blockchain, and macroeconomics. He provides in-depth market analysis, technical chart patterns, and insights on global economic impacts. His work bridges traditional finance and crypto, offering actionable advice and educational content. Passionate about blockchain’s role in finance, he studies behavioral finance to predict memecoin trends.

Latest news and analysis

Navnoor BawaMon, 31 Aug 2026 10:40:13 GMT

Gold Price Analysis: $4,280 Target In View as the Crowded Long Unwinds Into the Fed

GOLD+0.09%
James HyerczykMon, 31 Aug 2026 09:31:49 GMT

Natural Gas News: Can LNG Feedgas Hold Off Permian Supply This Week?

NATURAL/GAS+1.06%
Muhammad UmairMon, 31 Aug 2026 09:04:52 GMT

Copper Price Forecast: Is $7.50 the Next Target Despite Fed Risks?

COPPER+0.88%
Arslan Ali ButtMon, 31 Aug 2026 08:19:54 GMT

US Dollar Price Forecast: Hawkish Warsh Lifts DXY as EUR/USD and GBP/USD Fall

EUR/USD+0.07%GBP/USD0.00%GOLD+0.09%
Arslan Ali ButtMon, 31 Aug 2026 07:53:44 GMT

Gold (XAU/USD) & Silver Price Forecast: Warsh Turns Hawkish as Gulf Risks Surge

GOLD+0.09%SILVER+1.55%
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement

Source: www.fxempire.com