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Key Facts
- Analyst Benjamin Cowen put a 65% chance on Bitcoin’s cycle low still being ahead, against 35% that it has already passed.
- He named Bitcoin’s realized price, around $53,000, as the level he would watch if a lower low arrives, roughly 32% below current prices.
- A lower low would most likely require a 10% to 20% correction in US stocks, Cowen said, and clearing October without one would shift the odds to the bulls.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, said there is a 65% chance Bitcoin’s cycle low is still ahead, in an interview published Friday on the Kyle Chasse YouTube channel.
“I would say it’s probably 65% chance the low occurs in the future and 35% chance it’s behind us,” Cowen said in the interview, adding that the recent rally had not changed his framework.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $78,450 at the time of writing, down about 37% from its October 2025 record but up roughly 20% over 30 days, CoinMarketCap data shows.
Why Bitcoin’s $53,000 Realized Price Is a Level to Watch
Cowen pointed to Bitcoin’s realized price, an on-chain measure of what the average coin last moved at. “The realized price right now is currently around $53,000,” he said — about 32% below spot.
Every previous bear market bottomed below that line, he said, though the timing varied.
He also set a date on his own thesis. “If we get through October and there still isn’t a lower low, then I would say those odds start to favor the bulls,” Cowen said, calling the signal time-based rather than price-based.
Why a Fed Rate Hike Could Drive Bitcoin Price Lower
A lower low would most likely need a 10% to 20% drop in US equities, he said, the pattern that accompanied Bitcoin’s Q4 lows in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
The trigger he named is the Federal Reserve. Traders on Polymarket priced a quarter-point hike at the Sept. 15-16 meeting at 53% on Tuesday, on over $100 million of volume.
Those odds firmed after a hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and last week’s strong jobs report. Bitcoin entered September below $78,000 as they climbed.
Cowen argued a hike would not itself be bearish. “Rate hikes is more so a reflection of a strong economy, not a weak economy.”
He drew a parallel to March 1997, when the Fed raised once then left rates untouched for 18 months. Applied to a September move, that would run to early 2028 — long enough, on his reading, for an entire bull market to play out with policy flat.
Why Cowen Disagrees With Arthur Hayes on Crypto Liquidity
Asked about Arthur Hayes, who has argued that current policy already amounts to easing, Cowen pushed back on the liquidity picture. “Conditions are not as loose as people think they are,” he said, citing central bank balance sheets still below their 2021 peak.
Presented later with Hayes’s call to not worry about a recession and a possible 10x in Bitcoin, alongside forecasts of a severe downturn from others, Cowen placed himself between them, expecting a 10% to 20% equity drawdown rather than a crash.
“I’m happy to drop the bear bias and become a bull again, and I think I will be a bull again going into 2027,” Cowen said.
Read More: Is 100K Bitcoin Up Next? Bear Market Fades as Debasement Trade Begins
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Source: coinmarketcap.com