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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Fails at $81K Again – Is a Bigger Pullback Coming?
Bitcoin is consolidating near $79K after a sharp breakout from a multi-week consolidation structure. The move has significantly improved the broader technical picture, although momentum is now showing some signs of cooling as BTC approaches a major resistance area around $80K.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
The daily chart shows a decisive breakout from the consolidation range below $67K that had contained Bitcoin for the past couple of months. The asset first reclaimed the $67K resistance zone and then accelerated higher, pushing through the $72K-$74K area before reaching the current region near $80K.
The breakout is technically significant because the price has also moved back above both the 100-day (~$67K) and 200-day (~$70K) moving averages shown on the chart. These moving averages are already turning upward, suggesting that the medium-term structure is improving after months of a downtrend.
Bitcoin is now testing the $80K resistance zone. A daily close above this zone would form a long-term higher high and could open the way toward the $95K resistance region.
On the downside, the $72K-$74K area has become the first major support zone following the breakout. If this zone breaks, a deeper correction could bring BTC back toward $67K, which is another important former resistance area and now a potential support region. As long as the price remains above these zones, the recent breakout structure remains broadly constructive.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart provides a more immediate view of the current consolidation. Following the explosive move from the $63K-$65K region, BTC is establishing a rising wedge with clear higher lows and higher highs just below the $80K resistance zone. The price is currently trading around $79K and is seemingly declining toward the lower boundary of the wedge after another rejection from the resistance.
The $80K region is therefore the key area to watch. Bitcoin has already tested the lower part of this zone several times, but has not yet produced a convincing breakout. A sustained move above $80K would strengthen the continuation setup and potentially expose the next major resistance around $95K.
On the downside, the rising channel’s lower boundary currently provides dynamic support, with the broader $72K-$74K region also standing out as an important area if the structure breaks. The short-term RSI has also been trending lower while the price was making higher highs.
This bearish divergence between price and momentum suggests that buying pressure is getting exhausted, even though the underlying price structure remains bullish. Consequently, Bitcoin could require a period of sideways consolidation before attempting another breakout.
Sentiment Analysis
The Coinbase Premium Index provides an important additional signal. The metric has spent much of the recent period below zero, indicating weaker relative spot demand on Coinbase, but it has now rebounded sharply and is currently around +0.03.
This recovery is notable because it coincides with Bitcoin’s latest price advance. The move from deeply negative readings toward positive territory after months suggests that U.S.-based spot buying pressure has improved alongside the breakout. If the premium remains positive while BTC holds above $75K, it would provide additional confirmation that the rally is supported by spot demand rather than being driven solely by derivatives activity.
However, the recent spike in the premium should be monitored alongside the price. A renewed move back below zero while BTC struggles to break above $80K would weaken the confirmation and could increase the probability of a short-term correction.
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Full-time on-chain Data Analyst and Python Programmer. Passionate about Bitcoin and DataVisualization.
Source: cryptopotato.com