Will Bitcoin break $80,000 or fall to $75,000 as the Fed decision draws close?

Bitcoin has gained 0.5% over the past 24 hours to trade near $77,600 on Monday, but has remained below $78,000 after repeated attempts to reclaim the $80,000 level have failed.

CoinGecko put $BTC at $77,600 at the time of writing, with the cryptocurrency recovering from an intraday drop towards $76,500.

Bitcoin briefly moved above $77,750 during the rebound but gave back part of the move, while its seven-day performance remained negative at 2.9%.

The failure to return above $80,000 comes after Bitcoin reached the $82,000 area earlier in September before sellers pushed the price lower.

QCP Capital has identified $80,000 to $82,000 as a local resistance zone, with support around $77,000 to $78,000.

Fed uncertainty keeps Bitcoin below $80,000

Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 15–16 meeting changed after stronger-than-expected US employment figures for August.

Payrolls increased by 162,000, compared with market expectations of around 55,000 to 56,000, raising expectations that the central bank could increase interest rates again.

Treasury yields and the US dollar moved higher following the employment report, while Bitcoin remained below the resistance established around $80,000.

CoinShares research has linked recent digital asset fund flows with changes in US interest rate expectations.

The asset manager identified monetary policy uncertainty as one of the factors limiting Bitcoin around $80,000 ahead of the Fed meeting.

Institutional demand through US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds weakened at the same time.

The funds recorded $46.6 million in net outflows on Sept. 8, followed by withdrawals of $120.2 million on Sept. 9 and $282.7 million on Sept. 10.

Flows turned positive on Sept. 11, but the funds attracted only $6 million after losing close to $450 million over the previous three sessions.

The figures leave ETF buying well below the levels seen during Bitcoin’s earlier move towards $82,000.

Selling around $80,000 has kept $BTC inside a relatively narrow range since its early-September rejection.

Buyers have continued to enter around $76,000 to $77,000, while attempts to move through $80,000 have struggled to hold.

Bitfinex analysts have previously placed Bitcoin’s active-investor cost basis near $76,350, identifying the level as an area where demand could absorb selling.

$BTC briefly approached the same region during the past 24 hours before recovering above $77,500.

Derivatives positioning has yet to produce a clear break from the range.

CoinGlass data put Bitcoin open interest near $50.9 billion, while funding rates remained mildly positive and aggressive taker activity leaned towards sellers.

High open interest means leverage remains in the market while spot ETF demand has weakened.

A move through $78,000 would still leave $BTC facing the $80,000 to $82,000 supply zone that rejected its previous attempts higher.

$BTC price analysis

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows $BTC trading near $77,500 after its sharp August breakout from the $63,000 to $65,000 area.

Price reached the $81,000 to $82,000 region following that move but has since formed several lower highs while holding above $76,000.

$BTC remains well above its three major daily simple moving averages. The 50-day SMA stands at $71,402, the 200-day SMA at $70,189 and the 100-day SMA at $67,332.

The 50-day average has climbed above the 200-day SMA, while both sit more than 8% below the current price.

A break below $76,350 would therefore leave a sizeable gap before the first major moving-average support around $71,400.

The $70,000 to $71,400 region would become the next area to watch if sellers push $BTC through the current range floor.

Buying pressure has weakened even while price holds above those averages.

The daily Chaikin Oscillator has dropped to around -1.11K after surging above 4K during the August breakout.

Its move below zero indicates that accumulation has given way to net distribution in recent sessions.

The oscillator is still falling while $BTC trades around $77,500, leaving little confirmation from money flow for an immediate break through $80,000.

A return above zero alongside a price move through $80,000 would improve the chances of another test of $82,000. Clearing $82,000 would expose the $84,000 area seen earlier in the year.

On the 4-hour chart, $BTC has spent most of September between approximately $76,000 and $80,000 following its rejection from $82,000. See below.

The Directional Movement Index shows +DI at 19.69 and -DI at 15.19, giving buyers a small advantage.

ADX, however, sits at only 19.54, below the 20 to 25 area normally associated with a stronger directional trend.

$BTC would need +DI to pull further above -DI while ADX rises to support a sustained breakout from the current range.

Money Flow Index stands at 51.65 after recovering sharply from below 30.

The reading has returned just above the midpoint without entering overbought territory, showing that short-term buying pressure has recovered from the latest sell-off but remains far below the levels recorded during previous pushes towards $80,000.

A 4-hour close above $80,000, accompanied by rising DMI strength and an MFI move towards 60 to 70, would put $82,000 back in play.

Failure to clear $78,000 keeps $76,350 as the immediate downside level, followed by $75,000 if that support breaks.

Source: cryptonews.net