Why the Token Is Still Below Its High

XRP▲$1.13 has one of the strangest institutional-demand stories in crypto. XRP ETF inflows have surpassed $1.5 billion since U.S. spot products began launching, seven regulated funds now provide exposure to the token, and the latest week brought another $39.8 million into XRP products. Yet XRP remains nowhere near its record price.

The token recently rallied from roughly $1 to as high as $1.70 before settling around $1.47-$1.50. At those prices, XRP is roughly 59% below its July 2025 high of $3.65. Enormous XRP ETF inflows have not translated into anything resembling a return to the previous peak. The explanation lies in the difference between strong marginal demand and the much larger market that demand has to overcome.

How Big Are XRP ETF Inflows?

The headline number requires an important distinction.

The largest products include funds from Bitwise and Franklin Templeton, alongside offerings from Canary Capital, Grayscale, 21Shares, and REX-Osprey. Collectively, these products hold roughly $1.4 billion in net assets.

Demand has recently accelerated again. XRP products drew approximately $39.8 million during the week ending August 21, their strongest weekly performance since May. Another $13.8 million reportedly entered spot XRP ETFs on August 24.

This is meaningful demand, particularly for an altcoin. But it needs context.

XRP’s current market capitalization is approximately $93 billion. Even $1.4-$1.5 billion of ETF assets therefore represents only a small percentage of the entire XRP market.

For comparison, spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a much larger force relative to Bitcoin’s market capitalization. XRP ETF inflows matter at the margin, but they are not yet large enough to dictate the price independently of the rest of the market.

Why XRP ETF Inflows Have Not Sent XRP Back to Its High

The simplest explanation is that ETFs represent only one group of buyers.

Every day, existing XRP holders are also deciding whether to sell. The token has a large existing supply distributed across retail investors, <a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/coinone-follows-digital-x-with-zero-fees-as-exchange-price-war-erupts/” title=”Coinone Follows Digital X With Zero Fees as Exchange Price War Erupts”>exchanges, Ripple-related wallets, institutions, and long-term holders.

XRP has a maximum supply of 100 billion tokens, of which roughly 62.7 billion are currently circulating. Ripple still controls a substantial amount through escrow and operational wallets.

The company’s escrow system releases 1 billion XRP each month, although much of it is typically returned to escrow. Nevertheless, the structure creates a persistent supply overhang that does not exist in the same form for Bitcoin.

Then there are holders who bought XRP during the previous rally.

Anyone who purchased near $2, $2.50, or $3 has spent months underwater. As XRP recovers, some of these holders can use the rally to exit or reduce their positions.

XRP Has Already Rallied More Than the Price Chart Suggests

The distance from the all-time high also makes the current recovery look weaker than it actually is.

XRP fell below $1 in August before staging an extraordinary rebound. From roughly $1, it climbed as much as 70% to the recent $1.70 high. On a weekly basis, XRP gained more than 50%, substantially outperforming Bitcoin and most other major cryptocurrencies.

But large percentage gains following a deep collapse can be deceptive.

A token that falls from $3.65 to $1 has lost more than 70% of its value. Even if that $1 token subsequently rises 50%, it reaches only $1.50. It would then need another increase of roughly 143% to return from $1.50 to $3.65.

That mathematical asymmetry is one reason the effect of XRP ETF inflows can look underwhelming. The ETFs are supporting a token recovering from a massive drawdown, not pushing an asset that was already near its high into price discovery.

The recent rally is nevertheless significant. XRP has reclaimed its 200-day exponential moving average near $1.35 and changed a technical structure that had looked decisively bearish only weeks earlier.

The next problem is $1.70.

XRP was rejected there during the latest rally, making the zone the clearest immediate resistance. A convincing break could put $2 back in focus. Failure to clear it could leave the token consolidating around $1.35-$1.50.

The ETF Buyers Are Not Necessarily Buying at the Bottom

There is another reason why the relationship between XRP ETF inflows and price is less straightforward than it appears.

Cumulative inflows measure how much money has entered funds over time. They do not measure how profitable those investors are.

Much of the $1.5 billion entered XRP products when the token traded considerably above its 2026 lows. Even after the latest rally, estimates suggest the average dollar invested through U.S. XRP ETFs remains around breakeven or slightly underwater.

That creates a very different situation from one in which $1.5 billion suddenly arrives at today’s price.

Some ETF investors may become sellers as XRP recovers toward their entry levels. Others may hold for years. ETF flows can therefore create structural demand without producing an immediate one-to-one increase in XRP’s market capitalization.

The same distinction applies to institutional interest generally. A regulated ETF makes XRP easier for institutions to own, but ETF shares can also be purchased by retail investors. Strong ETF demand is evidence that regulated access is expanding; it does not mean every dollar entering the funds comes from Wall Street institutions.

Regulatory Risk Is No Longer the Main Problem

For years, XRP traded under extraordinary regulatory uncertainty because of Ripple’s dispute with the Securities and Exchange Commission. That made the asset particularly difficult for U.S. institutions to touch.

The environment is radically different in 2026.

In March, the SEC issued a Commission-level interpretation identifying XRP among the crypto assets that qualify as digital commodities rather than securities themselves. The CFTC joined the interpretation with corresponding guidance under commodities law.

That clarification matters because it removes one of the strongest arguments against institutional XRP exposure.

Does Ripple Adoption Actually Create XRP Demand?

A stronger XRP ecosystem does not automatically mean every new institutional user needs to accumulate large quantities of XRP.

XRPL transaction fees are extremely small. Stablecoins and tokenized assets can use the ledger without investors necessarily holding XRP as a speculative asset. Ripple itself can succeed commercially without every product creating proportional demand for the token.

This distinction matters because XRP ETF inflows are currently one of the clearest mechanisms through which institutional interest translates directly into XRP purchases.

For XRP to sustainably return to its old high, the market may eventually demand stronger evidence that growing use of the XRP Ledger also creates structural demand for XRP itself.

Can XRP ETF Inflows Eventually Push XRP Back to $3.65?

The bullish case has improved substantially. XRP ETF inflows are positive again, while the token has delivered its strongest rally in many months.

The supply side also contains encouraging evidence. Large XRP wallets have continued accumulating during parts of the downturn, suggesting that not every major holder is using rebounds to exit.

However, the market still needs to absorb substantial overhead supply.

At roughly $1.50, XRP would need to rise around 143% to return to $3.65. A move of that magnitude would add well over $100 billion to its fully diluted valuation. Several billion dollars of additional ETF demand could contribute to such a repricing, but ETF flows alone do not mechanically translate into an equivalent increase in market capitalization.

The immediate test is much closer.

XRP first needs to prove that the recent rally can hold above the $1.35-$1.40 region. It then needs to break through the selling pressure around $1.70 and establish $2 as a realistic target.

If XRP ETF inflows continue accelerating while the broader crypto market remains bullish, the gap between institutional demand and XRP’s price may eventually close.

But the gap exists for a reason. ETFs have created a meaningful new buyer for XRP. They have not eliminated the enormous supply of existing tokens, underwater holders, profit-taking, or the question of how much value the token itself captures from Ripple’s expanding institutional ecosystem.

For now, XRP’s ETF success is real. So is the fact that the token remains roughly 60% below its peak.

How much money has flowed into XRP ETFs?

Cumulative U.S. spot XRP ETF inflows reached approximately $1.57 billion by August 24, 2026. Combined net assets were around $1.44 billion.

Why has XRP not risen more despite XRP ETF inflows?

ETF demand is being offset by selling from existing holders, a large circulating supply, recurring escrow releases, profit-taking, and broader crypto-market conditions. ETF assets also remain small relative to XRP’s roughly $92 billion market capitalization.

What is XRP’s all-time high?

XRP reached approximately $3.65 in July 2025. At a price around $1.47-$1.50, XRP remains roughly 59% below that level.

What price does XRP need to break next?

The recent rally was rejected around $1.70, making that the most important near-term resistance zone. A convincing break above $1.70 could bring $2 back into focus.

Could XRP ETF inflows eventually push XRP to a new high?

Continued inflows would strengthen demand, but ETFs alone may not be sufficient. XRP would also benefit from a strong broader crypto market, reduced selling pressure, continued regulatory clarity, and evidence that XRP Ledger adoption creates additional structural demand for the token.

Source: bitcoinfoundation.org