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Three out of four XRP holders are still waiting to break even, and that math creates a ceiling the coin keeps bumping into. Understanding where that pressure comes from reveals why the road back is far more complicated than a…
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XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is trading at $1.26, down roughly 11% over the past week after falling from a $1.42 high on September 15. The coin’s market cap has dropped 8.25% to $79.75 billion, while 24-hour volume rose 19.26% to $5.97 billion, pointing to active selling. XRP climbed from around $0.99 on August 18 to $1.66 on August 22, but has struggled to regain momentum since, repeatedly failing to reach $2.
CoinMarketCap’s on-chain data shows why $2 remains a difficult level to clear. About three-quarters of XRP’s invested value was acquired above $2, leaving many holders waiting to break even. If the price reaches that level, some may sell, creating another layer of resistance.
Why 75% of XRP’s Realized Cap at a Loss Caps the Price
Realized capitalization values XRP based on the price at which each token last moved on-chain, estimating holders’ cost basis. That realized price is around $1.48, and with XRP at $1.26, about 60% of the supply is underwater. Separately, 75% of XRP’s realized cap comes from tokens that were last moved when XRP was above $2, meaning most of the network’s invested value is tied to prices XRP has yet to recover to.
Much of that value entered the market between November 2024 and March 2026, whenXRPtraded above $2. At today’s price, those holders remain 37% to 56% below their cost basis. XRP has recovered about 26% from its $0.99 low, but most of that gap remains.
That makes $2 a potential selling zone. As XRP approaches those holders’ cost basis, some may sell to exit at breakeven, adding resistance around the level.
XRP Faces a Wall of Resistance Above $1.66
XRP’s rally from $0.99 on August 18 to an intraday high of $1.66 before retracting to $1.46 shows that sellers are active around that high.
Above the current price, a resistance ladder builds at $1.41, $1.47, $1.55, $1.66, $1.86, and $2.00. Each level represents a group of holders with a different cost basis, creating more potential selling pressure as XRP climbs.
Santiment data shows holders who bought below $2 earlier in the year already sold into the August rally. Those who bought above $2, however, have yet to reach breakeven. That leaves heavier supply concentrated from $1.66 upward, with $2 as the biggest hurdle.
What XRP Needs to Break Higher
As XRP recovers, trapped holders who bought at lower prices may sell into rallies, while those still underwater may wait for the price to return to their cost basis before exiting. Each sale reduces the supply sitting above the current price and gradually weakens the resistance XRP faces on the way up. The process is slow, however, and could take months rather than days.
US spot XRP ETFscurrently hold about 1.7% of XRP’s supply, providing a steadye price rises. XRP is still down 30% year-to-date, compared with 13.4% for Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and 19% for Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), so it needs stronger demand to recover the ground it has lost. At the current pace, ETF inflows alone are unlikely to quickly remove the resistance
TheCLARITY Actcould have provided a separate catalyst by establishing clearer rules for the US crypto market and dividing oversight between the SEC and CFTC. However, the Senate recently failed to advance the bill in a procedural vote, leaving the legislation stalled. With that catalyst on hold, XRP now relies on time, ETF demand, and new buying pressure to work through the supply overhang.
Can XRP Get Back to $2 by 2027?
XRP can reach $2 by 2027, but the path depends on how quickly the market absorbs the supply above the current price. XRP first needs to clear $1.41, $1.47, $1.55, and $1.66, followed by $1.86 and $2.00. Each level represents holders with a different cost basis who may sell as XRP approaches their entry price.
The key metric to watch is the ETF share of XRP supply, currently around 1.7%. If that share rises toward the mid-single digits, stronger ETF demand could absorb more of the supply sitting above the market and make the climb toward $2 easier.
If ETF demand remains limited while the CLARITY Act stays stalled, XRP could continue facing resistance at each level. For now, $2 remains a supply-driven challenge rather than a straightforward price target.
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Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who’s spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining “the cloud” was peak innovation). Since 2018, he’s written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think “gas fees” is a typo. When he’s not writing or staring at charts, Sam’s either: – Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) – At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god – Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
Source: 247wallst.com