Who Wins in September?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is flashing enough bullish signals to suggest its cycle low may already be in, but several historically reliable bear market indicators have yet to fully reset.

Bullish Signals Vs. Bears’ Historical Data

Analyst Benjamin Cowen on Thursday compared a broad set of on-chain, technical, sentiment and cycle indicators to assess whether Bitcoin has already bottomed or still faces another leg lower.

While several indicators favor bulls, the overall evidence remains mixed.

Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has already fallen to levels associated with prior major lows, while monthly RSI has also reset substantially.

Long-term holder accumulation has plateaued near levels historically seen at cycle bottoms, while short-term holder activity remains weak.

Cowen also pointed to Bitcoin’s recent Golden Cross as another constructive signal.

Among the less convincing signals, Cowen noted

• Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple, MVRV Z-score and market-cap-to-thermocap ratio have not fallen to levels reached during previous major bear-market bottoms.
• Bitcoin has not traded below its realized price during the current cycle, something that happened during prior bear markets.
• Whale activity has remained muted compared with previous cycle lows.

What Will Decide BTC’s Q4 Outlook?

Cowen said Bitcoin’s 50-week moving average near $80,000 could determine whether the bear market is over.

Sustained weekly closes above the level would strengthen the bull case and reduce the risk of another major decline.

A rejection, however, could keep a Q4 low in October or November in play.

In a deeper selloff, Bitcoin could revisit its $53,000 realized price, with $37,000 to $38,000 a more extreme downside scenario.

Cowen stressed that the deeper decline is a risk scenario, not his base case.

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