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Solana’s sell-off deepened this week, with SOL down about 18% week-over-week (WoW) as record on-chain activity failed to stem mounting bear market fears
The slide reflects a broad risk-off turn across crypto markets rather than Solana-specific weakness, with analysts pointing to thinning liquidity, shrinking spot volumes, and macro pressures tied to expectations of a more hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve.
On-chain, however, Solana continues to outperform. The network logged record transactions per second and led peers in wallet activity this week, according to the Solana Foundation.
That divergence has sharpened debate over whether SOL is approaching a bottom or faces further downside.
SOL Slides as Risk-Off Pressure Builds
SOL is down more than 65% from 2025 highs
As of Feb. 10, SOL has fallen to around $84, shrinking the network’s market capitalization to roughly $48 billion and marking a drop of more than 65% from 2025 highs near $250, CoinMarketCap data shows.
The sell-off followed a broader market retreat driven by geopolitical tensions, shutdown risks in Washington, and renewed focus on U.S. monetary policy after President Donald Trump nominated former investment banker Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve.
Trading activity has also thinned. Spot crypto trading volumes on major exchanges have fallen from roughly $2 trillion in October to about $1 trillion by late January, signaling waning investor engagement, according to market researcher CryptoQuant.
“Spot demand is drying up,” CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said in a Feb. 2 note.
Stablecoin balances have also fallen, with total stablecoin market capitalization down about $10 billion, suggesting traders are moving funds off-chain.
Analysts Split on Near-Term Outlook
The SOL price chart exhibits a bearish pattern
Analysts are divided on where SOL heads next.
Bitcoinsensus, a technical analyst, said in a Feb. 9 post on X that recent price action confirms a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern, warning of a slide toward the $45–$50 range if selling pressure persists.
Others see early signs of a reversal. In a Feb. 6 report, research shop Santiment said retail traders are increasingly scanning for entry signals, behavior that has historically signaled a local bottom.
Tiger Global argues the downturn does not resemble a classic crypto winter, noting that past collapses were driven by internal industry failures.
“Now is different,” Tiger Global analyst Ryan Yoon wrote in a Feb. 3 research report. “External factors lifted the market, and external factors brought it down.”
Longer-term forecasts remain optimistic. Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick reportedly projects SOL reaching $2,000 per token by 2030, citing the network’s role as infrastructure for payments and financial services.
Strong Network Metrics Persist
Key Solana metrics such as decentralized exchange volume are strong
Even as prices slide, Solana’s on-chain activity continues to hit new highs.
Solana has outperformed <a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/ethereum-faces-2-3k-test-despite-12-day-etf-inflow-streak/” title=”Ethereum Faces $2.3K Test Despite 12-Day ETF Inflow Streak”>Ethereum and other major networks on median fees and throughput this week, according to Solana Foundation Chief Marketing Officer Vibhu Norby.
“Solana reached never-before-seen usage, yet users paid predictably low fees for execution,” Norby said in a Feb. 6 post on X. He added that the network posted an all-time high in tokenized stock trading volume and saw Tether (USDT) supply surpass $3 billion for the first time.
Ecosystem momentum has also been robust. Pump.fun, a meme coin launchpad, acquired trading infrastructure platform Vyper on Feb. 5, while decentralized exchange SushiSwap launched on Solana days later, expanding access for millions of users.
“In my first two months as CEO, Solana trading was identified as the top priority,” SushiSwap CEO Alex McCurry said in a Feb. 9 post.
“It is by far the most permissionless, enabled, and active network for tokenization and on-chain speculation.”
Total Solana Ecosystem Market Cap: $126.91B
Top 5 Solana Coins by Market Cap:
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Source: coinmarketcap.com