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September is historically Bitcoin’s(CRYPTO: BTC) weakest month, but analysts argue the bullish thesis can remain intact if key levels hold.
Why Is Bitcoin Recovering Faster?
The DeFi Report analyst Michael Nadeau said on the outlet’s podcast on Wednesday that his base case is Bitcoin holding its June low.
He lowered the odds of Bitcoin making a new cycle low from 60% to 65% to 40% to 45%.
A key bullish signal is Bitcoin rapidly moving into higher cost-basis groups.
The largest supply cohort shifted from a $56,000 to $66,000 cost basis to $78,000 to $92,000 in about two weeks.
This resembles Bitcoin’s recovery from the 2022 bear market but is happening much faster
What Keeps BTC Bull Case Active?
September has seasonally been Bitcoin’s worst month, leaving room for a near-term correction even if the broader cycle has already turned.
Nadeau sees Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average near $69,400 as the key level for keeping the bull case intact.
A break below could push Bitcoin toward its 200-week moving average near $65,000 and raise the risk of a new cycle low.
Bitcoin’s 50-week MA sits near $81,200, where it recently faced resistance.
The setup resembles early 2023, when Bitcoin corrected about 19% after testing its 50-week average. It then held the 200-day average before moving higher.
Why Signals Remain Mixed
Not every indicator has confirmed the turn, Nadeau warned.
Spot volumes remain weak, ETF momentum has cooled from August highs and miners continue selling. That differs from early 2023, when miners were accumulating Bitcoin.
However, Bitcoin dominance is rising, funding rates remain healthy and speculative activity is returning across crypto.
Long-term holders who bought near previous cycle highs are also selling. Nadeau sees this as possible capitulation, which could signal a market bottom.
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