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Key Facts
- Senate Republicans expect the CLARITY Act to fail, with a procedural floor vote due when the chamber returns next week.
- The sticking point is a Democratic demand for ethics language covering the president and his family, on which two Democratic aides reported little movement.
- Prediction market traders <a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/when-will-xrp-price-hit-100-data-says-not-yet-heres-why-news/” title=”When Will XRP Price Hit $100? Data Says Not Yet, Here’s Why | News”>priced passage this year at 15% on Tuesday, down from about 21% a month ago and a February peak above 80%.
Senate Republicans expect the CLARITY Act to fail, Semafor reported Tuesday, days before the crypto market structure bill is due on the floor.
Senator Mike Rounds told Semafor the bill “does not look good right now.” Senator Roger Marshall, who described the bill as far from a top voting issue, said “nobody back home is asking about it.”
Senator Thom Tillis said that “if there’s no interest in the White House in trying to bridge the gap on the ethics language, it is going to fail.”
Why the Ethics Provision Is Blocking the Crypto Bill
Democrats are demanding ethics language governing the president and his family. Two Democratic aides told Semafor there had been little movement on it, while the White House says it has already agreed to comprehensive ethics provisions.
The bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May, when all 13 Republicans and two Democrats advanced it, and needs 60 votes on the floor. Tillis and Senator Angela Alsobrooks had earlier brokered a compromise on stablecoin yield that unstuck the bill in committee.
Senator Cynthia Lummis rejected the framing. “If this bill fails it won’t be because of ethics, it will be because Democrats didn’t join Republicans in embracing a bipartisan bill,” she wrote, adding that she is “confident we can pass Clarity” if the remaining gaps can be bridged, but that they “require further compromise from Democrats, not the White House.”
Prediction Markets Cut CLARITY Act Odds to 15%
Traders on Polymarket priced the bill being signed into law in 2026 at 15% on Tuesday. That is down from roughly 21% a month ago and a peak above 80% in February.
Andy, co-founder of research firm The Rollup, wrote that Washington broadly assumes the bill will not pass and put the real odds at 3% to 5%. He expects the SEC to move instead through innovation exemptions covering tokenization, stablecoins, perpetual futures, prediction markets, and vaults.
Alexander Grieve, vice president of government affairs at Paradigm, pushed back, writing that reading unnamed staffers literally is a mistake and pointing to bank lobbying spending as evidence the outcome is not settled. He called the clock “a real obstacle,” noting the Senate sits for a week from Monday while the House leaves five days later, but wrote, “This thing is not dead, not by a longshot.”
Read More: What Happens to Crypto if the CLARITY Act Fails?
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Source: coinmarketcap.com