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Bernstein told clients Wednesday that the SEC and CFTC will move fast to fill the regulatory void left behind by the CLARITY Act failing its procedural vote Tuesday.
What Bernstein Is Expecting
In a note cited by The Block, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani argued that Tuesday’s 49-50 procedural vote failure shifts the entire crypto regulatory agenda to the SEC and CFTC.
The analysts expect both agencies to pursue specific rulemaking that is “aggressive and swift” to make up for time spent on failed legislative negotiations.
Their priority list for incoming rules covers a wide range of issues:
- Native crypto token classification — clearing up which tokens are securities vs. commodities
- DeFi and self-custody protections — formal rules for decentralized finance infrastructure
- Equity tokenization — governance framework for tokenized stocks
- Real-world asset perpetual futures — faster approval process expected
- Single-stock perpetuals — inter-agency coordination between SEC and CFTC
- Federal sports event contracts — rules around their classification as swaps
What the Failure Means for Stablecoin Rewards
Bernstein noted that leaves the stablecoin rewards framework exactly where it was.
The bill would have banned rewards on idle stablecoin balances and tied payouts to customer activity instead.
Without it, platforms like Coinbase(NASDAQ:COIN) can keep offering yield on idle balances. “Stablecoins should be just fine since they are governed by GENIUS,” the analysts wrote.
What StoneX Says About the Timeline
StoneX Financial analysts led by Mark Palmer called the bill dead for this entire congressional session, pointing to only 14 working days left in the Senate before campaign season kicks in.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) herself suggested the next realistic shot at CLARITY Act passage may not come until 2030, a timeline that puts the entire crypto market structure debate on hold for years.
StoneX also flagged a coming legal fight over stablecoin rewards. The OCC and FDIC have proposed rules that could presume an issuer violates the GENIUS Act’s yield ban if it pays an affiliate that then rewards stablecoin holders.
That dispute could end up in court once the GENIUS Act takes effect in January 2027.
As Benzinga reported Tuesday, Polymarket odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 had already collapsed from 82% in February to 16% before the vote, and now sit at 5%.
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