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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) clocked the strongest weekly rally in years, making the cryptocurrency start to look less like a high-beta stock proxy and more like digital gold.
Bitcoin jumped roughly 23% in the week ended Aug 21, while gold gained about 5%, the dollar weakened 0.8% and the S&P 500 fell 1.4%. The unusual combination came as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessentannounced plans to double the size of Treasury buybacks for longer-dated bonds, briefly pushing the 30-year yield lower.
The bond market later reversed most of that move. Bitcoin and gold did not. That divergence is particularly notable because historical data show that previous weeks when Bitcoin gained more than 15% while stocks fell, gold rose and the dollar weakened were accompanied by falling 30-year Treasury yields.
This time, the 30-year yield actually rose 1 basis point.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Validate the Rally
The move is already showing up in the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market.
The 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined $1.92 billion in net inflows last week
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust(NASDAQ:IBIT) accounted for roughly $1.33 billion of those inflows, or nearly 70% of the weekly total. Its strongest day came Aug. 20, when IBIT pulled in $503 million as total spot Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $606.3 million.
That makes the latest rally different from a purely speculative price surge. Investors were simultaneously putting fresh capital into regulated vehicles that provide direct spot Bitcoin exposure.
The flows also accelerated as Bitcoin approached $80,000. On Aug. 21 alone, the ETFs attracted another $307.5 million.
Bitcoin Is Behaving More Like Gold
The bigger potential shift is in correlations.
Bitcoin’s 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 fell from roughly 0.43 to almost zero, while its correlation with gold climbed above 0.5 One week does not overturn Bitcoin’s longer-term tendency to trade more like a risk asset, but the move offers a glimpse of what could happen if investors increasingly treat Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement and fiscal risk
That could put IBIT and other spot Bitcoin ETFs in direct competition with gold ETFs for a slice of portfolio allocations traditionally reserved for inflation, currency and sovereign-risk hedges.
The backdrop is supportive. The dollar was near multi-month lows on Monday amid investor concerns over U.S. debt and Treasury intervention, while gold and Bitcoin remained elevated.
The ETF Test Comes Next
The key question is whether this is the beginning of a sustained change in Bitcoin’s role or simply a powerful short-term rebound.
The latest ETF flows provide an encouraging signal. The rally has coincided with consecutive days of substantial spot creations rather than relying solely on leveraged positioning. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs also recorded their fifth straight session of net inflows around the end of the week
If those flows continue even as long-term Treasury yields remain elevated, the Bitcoin ETF story could evolve beyond crypto as a risk-on trade.
Instead, IBIT, FBTC, ARKB and their peers could increasingly become vehicles for investors seeking a digital alternative to gold, particularly when concerns over the dollar, government debt and purchasing power dominate the macro narrative.
That would be a much bigger development than a 23% Bitcoin week.
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