Rektember Is Back And These 3 Cryptos Are In The Spotlight

Bitcoin Leads 3 Cryptos Facing A Tough September

13h35 ▪5min read ▪ byLuc Jose A.
Getting informed▪Bitcoin (BTC)Summarize this article with:

Usually, the month of September is a risky period for crypto investments. Historically, Bitcoin shows its weakest monthly performance during this period, while central bank decisions can intensify volatility. This year’s context adds many uncertainties, including a probable rate hike in the United States. Despite these threats, three cryptos still have strong arguments to get through the month. These are Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

In brief

• September remains historically unfavorable for the crypto market, with volatility reinforced by monetary uncertainties.
• Bitcoin appears as the most defensive choice, thanks to its liquidity, dominance, and potential ETF support.
• Ethereum maintains a strong position in tokenized finance, driven by stablecoins, RWAs, and flows toward ETFs.
• Solana presents a more offensive profile, supported by its on-chain activity, but with a higher correction risk.
• The Fed’s decision and flows to ETFs will be decisive for the trajectory of these three cryptos in September.

September combines unfavorable seasonality and monetary risk

Bitcoin has conceded an average loss of about 3% during the month of September since 2013. Only five positive closes have been recorded over this period. This seasonality earned it the nickname “Rektember”, a combination of September and the expression “rekt”, related to heavy losses in the crypto industry.

The macroeconomic situation reinforces this caution this year. Markets assign over a 60% probability to a Federal Reserve rate hike on September 16. Conflicts in the Middle East also support oil and inflation expectations. Justin Onuekwusi of St. James’s Place stated :

The way the Fed communicates will be important, as it affects its credibility and global rates.

In this context, the three assets do not present the same level of risk :

• Bitcoin is the most defensive choice thanks to its liquidity and market dominance ;
• Ethereum offers an intermediate profile supported by staking, stablecoins, and tokenization;
• Solana offers greater offensive potential but remains more exposed to corrections.

No positive performance is guaranteed by this selection. It simply favors cryptos that have significant liquidity and identifiable economic activity.

Bitcoin remains the most defensive choice in the crypto market

Bitcoin remains the most valued and most liquid asset in the crypto market. These features facilitate operations and usually limit the magnitude of movements compared to less significant altcoins. Such characteristics do not eliminate the risk of correction, especially after the 25% rise recorded in August.

ETFs also represent an indicator to watch. These American products attracted nearly 2.5 billion dollars in seven sessions by the end of August, according to available data. Continued inflows would support BTC. Large outflows could, on the contrary, amplify selling pressure.

Thus, Bitcoin constitutes the most cautious profile among the three cryptos selected. Its progression will depend mainly on the Fed’s decision, bond yields, and its ability to sustainably reclaim 80,000 dollars.

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Ethereum maintains its lead in tokenized finance

Ethereum benefits from activity less dependent on speculative transactions alone. The blockchain hosts about 148 billion dollars of stablecoins, nearly 49% of the supply distributed across various networks

Its position is also apparent in the tokenization of real-world assets. Ethereum currently hosts 17.57 billion dollars of distributed RWAs and 159.71 billion dollars of stablecoins These sums strengthen its role as a financial infrastructure, even if the price of ether is undergoing a correction

Ethereum ETFs also recorded ten sessions of net inflows up to August 28. Their cumulative flows then approach 12.98 billion dollars. This demand provides potential support, however, the token remains more volatile than Bitcoin. The competition from other blockchains and the decline in fee-based income also represent two risks.

Solana offers more potential, but also more volatility

Solana offers the most offensive profile in this selection. The network combines low fees, fast execution, and significant activity in decentralized exchanges, stablecoins, and tokenized assets.

Its stablecoin supply exceeded 16 billion dollars in May. Solana ETFs also total nearly 1.13 billion dollars in assets, according to the Solana Foundation. The blockchain processed 1,900 billion dollars in stablecoin transactions during the first half, according to 21Shares.

Solana remains more sensitive to liquidity withdrawals and rapid sell-offs. It is better suited for dynamic exposure than a defensive position. During September, fractional acquisitions could reduce the risk of entering right before a correction. The Federal Reserve decision and flows to ETFs will then help determine if Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana can truly withstand their unfavorable seasonality.

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Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

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