Don't want to trade it yourself?
Our desk runs DEX portfolios on profit share.
Polymarket CLARITY Act Odds Slashed to 15% of Being Passed in 2026
We believe in full transparency with our readers. Some of our content includes affiliate links, and we may earn a commission through these partnerships. However, this potential compensation never influences our analysis, opinions, or reviews. Our editorial content is created independently of our marketing partnerships, and our ratings are based solely on our established evaluation criteria. Read More
Ad Disclosure
Ad Disclosure
We believe in full transparency with our readers. Some of our content includes affiliate links, and we may earn a commission through these partnerships. However, this potential compensation never influences our analysis, opinions, or reviews. Our editorial content is created independently of our marketing partnerships, and our ratings are based solely on our established evaluation criteria. Read More
Author
Ahmed Barakat
Author
Part of the Team Since
Mar 2024
About Author
Ahmed Barakat is a journalist and copywriter based in Georgia with a growing focus on blockchain technology, DeFi, AI, privacy, digital assets, and fintech innovation.
- Bitcoin Price Gap Widens as Kimchi Premium and ETF Flows Take Center Stage
- Coinbase Tokenization Bet Remains a Platform Hypothesis
- Sam Altman ChatGPT AI Predicts XRP Price By End Of 2026
- Google Gemini AI Predicts Incredible Bitcoin Price By End of 2026
- Ripple Unveils 4-Stage Quantum Security Plan: Is XRP Set to Benefit?
The CryptoNews editorial team is composed of seasoned writers specializing in cryptocurrency and blockchain technology. Their expertise ensures comprehensive, accurate, and insightful content for…
- Bitcoin Price Prediction: Strategy Has a New BTC Approach
- XRP Price Prediction: Going Mainstream as Kansas Athletics Announces Strategic Jersey Patch
- Ethereum Price Prediction: Kiyosaki Still Eyeing ETH, Solana Founder Bullish on EF Staff Cuts
- How to Exchange ZEC to BTC: Best Zcash to Bitcoin Exchanges 2026
- How to Take Part in Wadoozie’s Live 48-State Tour to Win WADZ Rewards
We believe in full transparency with our readers. Some of our content includes affiliate links, and we may earn a commission through these partnerships. However, this potential compensation never influences our analysis, opinions, or reviews. Our editorial content is created independently of our marketing partnerships, and our ratings are based solely on our established evaluation criteria. Read More
Last updated:
September 1, 2026
Bitcoin trades at $78,646.05, down 0.28% in the last 24 hours, a quiet number for a market that’s watching Washington more than charts right now. The reason is that Polymarket CLARITY Act odds contract has collapsed from 82% odds of passage in February to just 13% by early August, a move that’s rattled traders betting on regulatory clarity as the next major catalyst.
The Senate faces a September 15 cloture vote on H.R. 3633, the bill that would hand the CFTC exclusive authority over spot digital-commodity markets while leaving the SEC in charge of securities-classified tokens and exchange oversight. Republicans hold 53 seats; they need seven Democrats to cross the aisle to hit the 60-vote threshold.
Polymarket’s contract, which has moved over $11.5M in volume, now implies just a 13-14% chance of enactment in 2026, a stark contrast to Kalshi’s 91% probability that a Senate vote will occur at all before October 1. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong remains publicly “rather optimistic” about clearing 60 votes, but the prediction markets tell a colder story.
That gap between “a vote happens” and “the bill actually passes” is the real trade here. It’s also spilling into how traders price crypto-adjacent risk heading into Q4.
Can Bitcoin Hold Support as Polymarket Clarity Act Odds Crater?
BTC’s 0.28% daily slide to $78,646.05 isn’t dramatic on its own, but it’s occurring against a backdrop of regulatory uncertainty, which typically compresses risk appetite.
The $76,000-$78,000 zone has functioned as near-term support through recent sessions; a break below invites a retest of the low-$70Ks. Upside resistance sits near $82,000-$84,000, a level BTC hasn’t reclaimed with conviction since the momentum around the CLARITY Act began fading in July.
Bull case: a surprise bipartisan push or committee reschedule flips sentiment, odds rebound toward 30%+, and BTC tests $84K.
Base case: consolidation continues near current levels as the Senate calendar drags without resolution.
Bear case: the September 15 cloture vote fails outright, odds sink into single digits, and BTC retests sub-$76K support. Watch the vote date closely; it’s the only near-term catalyst that moves this needle materially.
[button link=”https://99bitcoins.com/visit/kalshi” color=”green” text_color=”white” size=”medium” target=”new” rel=”nofollow”]Check out the BTC Markets on Kalshi and Claim Your Free $25[/button]
Kalshi Traders Turn Bearish on the CLARITY Act
The likelihood of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 has significantly declined. Prediction-market traders are increasingly betting that the landmark crypto regulation bill will have difficulty passing in the Senate.
According to the latest market data from Kalshi, there is currently a 91% probability that the Senate will hold a vote on the CLARITY Act before October 1. However, this does not indicate that the bill is likely to pass.
A critical challenge will occur on September 15, when senators are expected to vote on a procedural motion to advance the legislation. The bill requires 60 votes to overcome the cloture hurdle, making bipartisan support essential.
Kalshi’s pricing for the bill’s passage has dropped to approximately 22%, reflecting a significant shift in sentiment. Traders are increasingly worried about unresolved disagreements over stablecoin rewards, DeFi regulation, anti-money-laundering provisions, and government officials’ restrictions on crypto-related activities.
This makes September a crucial month for the CLARITY Act. A successful procedural vote could restore optimism and potentially lead to a significant repricing in crypto-related prediction markets. Conversely, failure to secure the necessary 60 votes could effectively push comprehensive crypto market-structure legislation into 2027.
For now, traders on Kalshi indicate that a Senate vote is highly likely, but passage remains a long shot.
[button link=”https://99bitcoins.com/visit/kalshi” color=”green” text_color=”white” size=”medium” target=”new” rel=”nofollow”]Make Your Prediction With $25 Free on Kalshi[/button]
This is not financial advice. Crypto markets are highly volatile and speculative. Always conduct independent research before making investment decisions.
- CLARITY Act Lags as Bitcoin ETFs Slip
- UAE “Spy Sheikh” Behind Trump Crypto Bank: 49% Ownership, $500M and Questions MAGA Can’t Avoid
- XRP Price Targets $2 as One Key Metric Flashes Bullish Signal
- XRP Price Prediction: Momentum and $1.40 Floor to Hold
- Cardano News: ADA Anchors 500,000 Supply-Chain Records for Public Proof
Price Analysis
Bitcoin’s Best Month of 2026 Is Digesting: Rising Exchange Reserves Say Setup Getting Riskier
2026-08-31 09:25:00
,
by Ahmed Barakat
Price Analysis
Ripple Unveils 4-Stage Quantum Security Plan: Is XRP Set to Benefit?
2026-08-31 13:40:00
,
by Ahmed Barakat
Crypto Regulation News
Bank Plans on CLARITY Act Send Circle and Coinbase Shares Lower
2026-08-28 09:11:59
,
by Ahmed Barakat
Best Crypto to Buy Now in September 2026 – Top Crypto to Invest In
2026-08-28 08:46:33
,
by Alan Draper
New Cryptocurrencies to Invest in Today – Top New Crypto Coins
2026-08-28 09:46:24
,
by Ines S. Tavares
8 Best Crypto Presales in September 2026
2026-08-24 09:35:05
,
by Alan Draper
Early Access to 6 New & Upcoming Coinbase Listings in September 2026
2026-08-28 10:46:25
,
by Ilija Rankovic
10 New & Upcoming Binance Listings in 2026
2026-06-01 10:46:56
,
by Ilija Rankovic
Next Crypto to Explode in 2026 – Our Top Picks
2026-08-27 11:32:34
,
by Ilija Rankovic
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2026, 2027 – 2030
2026-09-01 07:30:00
,
by Leon Waters
XRP (XRP) Price Prediction 2026, 2027 – 2030
2026-09-01 07:30:00
,
by Ihssan El Medkouri
Ethereum Price Prediction 2026, 2027 – 2030
2026-09-01 07:30:00
,
by Leon Waters
Source: cryptonews.com