JPMorgan says bitcoin could outperform gold if ETF hedging eases

JPMorgan said bitcoin could show a relatively stronger trend than gold if bitcoin ETF investors’ demand for downside hedges declines.

On Sept. 17, blockchain media outlet U.Today reported that a JPMorgan analysis team led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou (니콜라오스 파니기르초글루) found institutional investors’ exposure to bitcoin and gold ETFs was high, but bitcoin investors were far more active in preparing for downside risks.

JPMorgan focused on the structure of investors’ positions rather than the size of ETF inflows alone. It said bitcoin investors’ unusually defensive positioning could work in bitcoin’s favour if sentiment improves and demand for protection eases. It explained that if hedging positions shrink, bitcoin could get additional support against gold.

Both bitcoin and gold ETFs saw renewed inflows. After the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, investors returned to trades aimed at guarding against a so-called decline in currency value, bringing money into ETFs tied to both assets.

Still, the rebound in ETF demand was faster for gold. JPMorgan said gold ETFs have already fully made up for outflows that occurred in early 2026. By contrast, bitcoin ETFs recovered only about half of earlier outflows.

On the surface, gold showed a stronger rebound, but JPMorgan saw another difference in defensive positioning in ETFs. Short interest in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, IBIT, was near its 2026 high, while short interest in SPDR Gold Shares ETF, GLD, was below the historical average.

A similar pattern appeared in the options market. The ratio of put options to call options open interest for IBIT was higher than for GLD. It is an indicator showing bitcoin investors are taking more active steps than gold investors to defend against downside risks.

JPMorgan said the difference could create additional upside room for bitcoin. If investors regain confidence and begin to cut hedge positions, bitcoin could receive relatively more support than gold.

JPMorgan’s outlook for bitcoin has become somewhat more cautious this year. While maintaining a positive view of the crypto market in February 2026, it estimated bitcoin’s production cost at about $77,000, or about 106.4 million won. That was down from about $90,000, or about 124.4 million won, at the start of the year.

The JPMorgan team also reiterated a view that bitcoin’s volatility-adjusted long-term value, based on a comparison with gold, could reach $266,000, or about 368 million won.

But as 2026 progressed, JPMorgan’s view became more cautious. In June, it pointed out that bitcoin had traded below its estimated production cost for 5 straight months. It also repeatedly warned throughout the summer that the likelihood of passage of the Clarity bill was declining.

JPMorgan said the bitcoin market is now seeing such regulatory uncertainty combined with institutional investors’ complex positioning.

About the Author
Seung-a Yooysah@d-today.co.kr

Keyword

#JPMorgan#Bitcoin#BlackRock#IBIT#GLDCopyright © DigitalToday. All rights reserved. Unauthorized reproduction and redistribution are prohibited.

Source: www.digitaltoday.co.kr