itcoin’s Next Bull Run May Hinge On This $81,700 Level

<a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/why-bitcoin-etfs-may-be-worth-another-look-as-inflows-rebound/” title=”Why Bitcoin ETFs May Be Worth Another Look as Inflows Rebound”>Bitcoin Needs $81,700 Breakout To Confirm Bull Market

14h35 ▪5min read ▪ byLuc Jose A.
Getting informed▪Bitcoin (BTC)Summarize this article with:

After a 24% gain in two weeks, BTC stopped its progression and currently stagnates around 77000 dollars. According to CryptoQuant, the momentum remains bullish; however, its confirmation depends on a precise threshold: 81700 dollars, the level of the 365-day moving average. However, before reaching it, the market must still absorb a significant concentration of supply. And beyond that, two new resistances already await bitcoin at 83600 and 88700 dollars.

In brief

• Bitcoin rose 24% in two weeks before seeing its rebound fade around 77000 dollars.
• A first resistance is between 77100 and 80200 dollars, a zone marked by significant sales from long-term holders.
• The 81700 dollar threshold is decisive: according to CryptoQuant, passing it could confirm a new bull market.
• Two other resistances await Bitcoin at 83600 and 88700 dollars, with a risk of profit-taking.
• In case of pullback, supports are around 70000 dollars, then between 62000 and 65000 dollars.

An important selling zone weighs on bitcoin’s progression

Bitcoin’s rebound encounters a first resistance zone between 77100 and 80200 dollars. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, explains the situation: “the trend remains constructive, but a resistance wall stands in its way”. This barrier equals a zone where long-term holders sold up to 539000 BTC over a one-month period during this year.

Such a concentration of sales gives the resistance an on-chain dimension. Moreno describes it as “the closest and most important on-chain supply resistance above the current price”. Bitcoin must therefore absorb this supply before extending its movement, following a 24% rebound in two weeks. Immediate questions are less about the extent of the rebound already made than about the market’s ability to surpass this concentration of BTC capable of weighing on prices.

At this level, the main benchmarks proposed by CryptoQuant focus on three data points :

• 24% increase in bitcoin in two weeks before the movement fades ;
• 77100 to 80200 dollars, the supply resistance zone identified above the price ;
• 539000 BTC, the maximum volume sold by long-term holders over a thirty-day period this year in this zone.

The 81700 dollar threshold as confirmation of a new bullish cycle

The level that CryptoQuant considers decisive, 81700 dollars, is located above this first zone. Currently, it equals bitcoin’s 365-day moving average and represents the first major technical resistance. The analyst recalls that BTC bullish markets have historically started “officially” whenever the price closed above this average

Thus, a clear breakout above 81700 dollars would confirm a new bull market, according to CryptoQuant’s analysis. This presented alternative is more cautious. Without a clear breakthrough, bitcoin would continue to progress in a range. The threshold is therefore not a promise of growth but a confirmation condition. Such a distinction nuances the reading of a market that remains constructive while the sought technical signal has not yet been obtained.

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Beyond 81700 dollars, other resistances remain to be crossed

The path would remain cluttered, even in case of a breakout. A new resistance is located at 83600 dollars according to CryptoQuant. It comes from the “3x Metcalfe band”, a model that determines bitcoin’s value based on network activity, fundamentally active addresses. For Moreno, these bands marked significant levels during previous cycles. The 3x band was near 138000 dollars when bitcoin reached its record of 126000 dollars in October 2025. As for the 2x band, it was close to the price when BTC hit 100000 dollars for the first time in December 2024.

Additional selling pressure would appear around 88700 dollars, the upper bound of the price model realized by CryptoQuant traders, which follows their average acquisition price. Moreno also notes:

The upper bound marks the zone where traders’ profit-taking has historically appeared.

If the market moves in the opposite direction, the analyst identified a first support around 70000 dollars, corresponding to the 200-day moving average, then a zone between 62000 and 65000 dollars, where long-term holders acquired nearly 476000 BTC this year.

Thus, the configuration described by CryptoQuant remains favorable without considering the recovery as acquired. Moreno concludes : “the overall picture remains bullish, bitcoin simply has to absorb the supply above it and break through its valuation ceilings before a new upward leg can develop”.

Between successive resistances and accumulation zones located lower, 81700 dollars now appears as the level around which the confirmation of the bullish scenario is played out.

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Luc Jose A.

Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.

The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.

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