Fidelity Eyes November 2026 Bitcoin Bottom After 25% Surge

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Bitcoin closed August with its largest monthly gain since November 2024, capping a quarter that Fidelity Digital Assets says left prices at the low end of their historical range.

Cycle math points to November

For most of its history, bitcoin has carved out bear market bottoms and bull market tops roughly four years apart, a rhythm that tracks its halving epochs.

The last bottom landed in November 2022, which puts the next one somewhere around November 2026 if the pattern holds.

Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, warned against treating that as a timing tool:

“The more important point for <a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/1-popular-cryptocurrency-ark-invest-expects-to-surge-by-1480/” title=”1 Popular Cryptocurrency ARK Invest Expects to Surge by 1,480%”>investors is that adoption of digital assets has happened in waves, which can perpetuate cycles. In light of this, having a long-term perspective and holding period is what has historically been the most beneficial for investors.”

Volatility flips higher

Bitcoin’s earlier bear markets have ended with a stretch of quiet trading before volatility expands to the upside.

“From June to mid-August, we saw a period of relatively low volatility for digital assets, where it appeared sellers had been exhausted.”

Price then jumped more than 25% during the third week of August alone, bitcoin’s strongest month in nearly two years.

Bearish news stops biting

Kuiper pointed to how the market handled negative headlines over the summer:

“Recent events that would have likely been bear market catalysts, such as a recent hardware wallet security incident or the stalling of the CLARITY Act, have not moved prices lower.”

The CLARITY Act, which would sort out which federal regulators oversee which digital assets, has passed the House and is still sitting in the Senate.

The SEC separately proposed Regulation Crypto Assets last week, covering when earlier-stage offerings can claim exemptions from securities registration.

Fidelity noted that none of this guarantees the bear market has ended.

Source: bitbo.io