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VanEck said a shift in the U.S. debt financing structure could create a favorable medium- to long-term backdrop for Bitcoin. Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, said the U.S. Treasury’s share of short-term debt had risen to 23% of marketable Treasuries, above the recommended 15% to 20% range.
VanEck said greater reliance on short-term debt could increase interest costs if high rates persist, which in turn could pressure real rates lower and weaken the dollar over time. The firm added that BTC and the dollar have shown a sustained negative correlation over the past 15 years, suggesting Bitcoin could benefit as a hedge against currency depreciation if the dollar weakens structurally.