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Bitcoin posted a cumulative return of about 225% over the past three years, but that flips to an 11% loss if investors missed its 15 best trading days, Grayscale found.
Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said based on Bloomberg data that BTC returns fall to 95% if the top five trading days are excluded and to 27% if the top 10 are removed. Over the same period, the Nasdaq 100 rose 109% and still delivered a 21% return even with its top 15 trading days excluded.
Pandl added that because BTC’s gains were concentrated in a small number of trading days, investors waiting for volatility to ease or for a clearer market direction could miss sharp upside moves. For those seeking long-term returns, Pandl said consistently maintaining BTC exposure may be better than trying to time market entry.