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On-chain analyst Murphy said about 32,000 BTC sent to exchanges by long-term holders on Oct. 7-8 included roughly 14,800 BTC in potential selling pressure.
In a post on X, Murphy said about 17,200 BTC was transferred during the same period from U.S. government-related wallets to Coinbase Prime. Murphy said it is hard to conclude those coins were meant for sale, as they may have been consolidated for custody or moved for legal procedures. The remaining 14,800 BTC, mainly from coins held for six to 12 months and three to five years, represented potential selling pressure.
Murphy added that if the market is shifting from a bear market to a bull market, sales by long-term holders do not necessarily need to be seen as negative. Murphy said selling has increased during past price corrections, but early supply overhang later eased pressure on the broader trend. More recently, even older holdings have started to move, Murphy said. On Oct. 8, the average holding period of BTC moved by long-term holders was 712 days, up from 651 days on July 14. If the bull market continues, older dormant holdings are also likely to emerge over time, Murphy said. The key issue, Murphy said, is how much of that selling the market can absorb, adding that if new demand is strong enough, the sales are unlikely to block the uptrend.