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Crypto market volatility could increase over the next two weeks as the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to decide on interest rates and key economic data releases are due, according to HTX Research analyst Chloe.
Chloe said institutional buying has been recovering, but it is still too early to call a trend reversal based on short-term fund inflows alone. The market is pricing in a rate hold in October and the possibility of an additional hike in December, so a hold alone may struggle to provide fresh upside momentum. Chloe added that the Fed’s future tightening stance is likely to shape the market’s direction.
If the Fed lowers the likelihood of further rate hikes, core personal consumption expenditures inflation comes in below expectations, and inflows into spot BTC ETFs continue, BTC could break above its short-term peak and drive further gains in Ethereum and Solana, Chloe said. On the other hand, a hawkish Fed message, hotter-than-expected inflation, or a sharp strengthening in the yen could push the market lower. Volatile altcoins in particular could face relatively heavier selling pressure, according to the analysis.