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Bitcoin has started to decouple from Nasdaq tech stocks and move more like gold, Grayscale said, as investors refocus on the cryptocurrency’s scarcity and store-of-value role.
Over the past year, Bitcoin looked more like a volatile risk asset than a hedge against currency debasement amid an AI-driven rally in risk assets, Grayscale said. More recently, however, the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 fell from more than 60% to about 33%, while its correlation with gold rose from just above 0% at the start of the year to more than 50%.
Grayscale attributed the shift to deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions. With U.S. federal debt recently topping $40 trillion and long-dated Treasuries also posting notable weakness over the past year, interest in assets that can hedge against the risk of fiat-currency debasement is rising again amid high fiscal deficits, growing debt and higher long-term yields.