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Bitcoin is facing overhead selling pressure while trading below the average cost basis of investors who bought BTC over the past two years, according to Glassnode. The firm estimated the average entry price for holders in the six- to 12-month cohort at about $88,000 and for one- to two-year holders at about $100,000, with both levels acting as resistance that stalled Bitcoin’s gains this year.
Glassnode also said long-term holder capitulation has eased. Realized losses among long-term holders have fallen about 85% since peaking on Aug. 12, a pattern the firm said has also appeared in past bull markets. However, institutional demand is weakening again. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted about $3 billion in net inflows from Sept. 21 to Oct. 6, but shifted to roughly $760 million in net outflows after Oct. 7. Glassnode said a sustained recovery in ETF inflows would signal a revival in demand. In the near term, a break above $88,000 and a resumption of ETF inflows could point to further gains, while a drop below the $80,000 support level could increase downside pressure toward around $78,000.