Epoch AI updates that the revenue growth rates of OpenAI and Anthropic have reached or exceeded the rare levels seen in historically comparable tech companies. Over the past year, OpenAI increased its annualized revenue run rate from $13 billion to over $40 billion, achieving approximately threefold growth; Anthropic’s revenue is projected to grow from $1 billion in 2025 to $9 billion, with a further acceleration in the first quarter of 2026, reaching an annualized run rate of over three times, reportedly hitting $65 billion by the end of July.

The combined revenue of the two companies is expected to grow approximately threefold in 2024, over fourfold in 2025, and from $30 billion to $105 billion by August 2026, achieving about 3.5 times growth. The article notes that maintaining over 100% annual growth at a scale exceeding $1 billion is extremely rare, with the growth rate for 2025 already being record-breaking, and further acceleration in 2026 on a higher base.

Epoch AI analysis states that the overall annualized revenue of the generative AI market is close to $200 billion, with the two companies accounting for about half. The continued hypergrowth may stem from the combination of capability advancements and diffusion, with future trends depending on whether growth comes more from sustained technological advancements or application diffusion; if the growth rate is maintained, it will significantly impact economic scale, but it may also slow down with maturity.