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Jiang Zhuoer, founder of mining pool BTC.top and a blockchain entrepreneur with Chinese roots, said the odds are low that the U.S. Clarity Act will clear a procedural vote on Sept. 15, according to a post on X.
Jiang said Polymarket’s estimated odds of passage rose to 28% from 14% after Republicans accepted about 80% of provisions that Democrats had objected to in the latest bill, but added the actual level of compromise remained around 60%. Jiang said Democrats’ demands were not sufficiently reflected on key issues including ethics provisions and enforcement authority. In particular, Jiang said Democrats had sought to apply the ethics clause not only to federal officials and spouses, but also to children and related entities, while the latest bill limits its scope to officials and spouses.