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Bitwise Head of Research André Dragosch assessed Bitcoin’s fair value at $197,000 and analyzed a future shift in Federal Reserve policy as a key catalyst for a full-fledged BTC bull market.
Dragosch said recent moves in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield show the speed of the rise matters more than the level itself. As an empirical risk signal, Dragosch said an increase of around 0.8 percentage point in the 10-year yield over 20 trading sessions is a threshold worth watching. A sharp rise in Treasury yields over a short period could increase downward pressure on risk assets such as stocks, while a deeper stock-market correction could become a trigger for the Fed to change its current policy stance. If a stock-market correction is followed by a Fed policy pivot, the final key condition for a sustained BTC bull market could be met, Dragosch said.