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A Bank for International Settlements working paper found that higher deposit rates at U.S. banks are associated with slower growth in the market capitalizations of stablecoins such as USDT and USDC.
The researchers analyzed weekly data from January 2019 through June 2025 while accounting for Bitcoin prices, U.S. Treasury yields and broader financial conditions. They estimated that when the average bank deposit rate rises by one basis point, the average 10-week stablecoin market cap growth rate slows to around 12% from about 15%. In an estimate that also reflected the effect of banks adjusting deposit rates in response to stablecoin growth, the growth rate slowed to about 6%, although the researchers said that approach has limitations. In both cases, stablecoin market capitalization did not shift into contraction. The relationship between rates and growth was more pronounced for Circle’s USDC than for Tether’s USDT, which the researchers said is consistent with USDC being relatively more closely tied to U.S. users. They added that the sample included only one high-rate period, while the spread of yield-bearing stablecoins and tokenized money market funds could change the results going forward. The paper concluded that banks can exert some influence over the pace of stablecoin adoption through deposit rate policy.