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Ethereum Price Risks 40% Drop as Historic Resistance Returns | FXEmpire
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Ethereum Price Risks 40% Drop as Historic Resistance Returns
By: Yashu Gola
Published: Sep 1, 2026, 12:35 GMT+00:00
Live PriceEthereum
Key Points:
- Ethereum’s 70% rebound is testing the 100-week EMA near $2,554, echoing a resistance setup seen before the 2020 crash.
- A rejection followed by a break below the 20-week EMA near $2,113 could expose ETH to $1,500–$1,550.
- ETH’s liquidation map shows $3.79 billion in long liquidations toward $1,760, with a major $180.33 million cluster near $1,840.
- +0.04%Ethereum Forecast
Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has staged a sharp V-shaped recovery from its June lows. Still, the rebound is now running into a major long-term resistance level that previously preceded a deeper market correction.
ETH Tests 2020-Era EMA Resistance
As of Tuesday, Sept. 1, Ether was trading near $2,460, up approximately 70% from its 2026 lows.
In doing so, the price came closer to its 100-week exponential moving average (100-week EMA, purple) near $2,554. The level could determine whether ETH’s recovery develops into a broader bullish reversal or loses momentum in the coming weeks.
A similar setup appeared during Ethereum’s 2019–2020 market cycle. ETH rebounded sharply after bottoming near $82 in late 2018 but struggled to sustain gains above its 100-week EMA during subsequent recovery attempts.
Repeated rejection from the moving average eventually preceded another major selloff, culminating in Ethereum revisiting roughly the same $82 support region during the March 2020 market crash.
Ethereum’s current structure bears some resemblance to that period.
After establishing what could become its first major bottom around $1,500, ETH has recovered toward the 100-week EMA but has yet to reclaim it convincingly.
A rejection near $2,500–$2,550, followed by a break below the 20-week EMA near $2,113, could strengthen the bearish fractal.
That could expose ETH to a deeper correction toward $1,500–$1,550, roughly 40% below the 100-week EMA resistance.
Still, the weekly relative strength index (RSI) remains constructive near 59. A decisive close above the 100-week EMA would weaken the bearish setup and favor further recovery.
ETH Liquidity Map Strengthens Downside Risk
Ethereum’s one-month liquidation heatmap adds another bearish layer to the technical setup, showing substantially more leveraged liquidity below the current price than above it.
A rally toward $2,650 could liquidate more than $856 million in short positions. However, a decline toward $1,760 could wipe out roughly $3.79 billion in leveraged longs, creating a much larger downside liquidity pool.
The strongest individual liquidation cluster sits near $1,840 (the yellow zone), where about $180.33 million in long positions are at risk. This concentration could act as a potential liquidity magnet during a broader correction.
Therefore, a breakdown below key technical support could accelerate ETH toward the $1,840–$1,760 region before the deeper $1,500 fractal target comes into focus.
About the Author
Yashu GolaSenior Cryptocurrencies Analyst
Yashu Gola is a crypto journalist and analyst with expertise in digital assets, blockchain, and macroeconomics. He provides in-depth market analysis, technical chart patterns, and insights on global economic impacts. His work bridges traditional finance and crypto, offering actionable advice and educational content. Passionate about blockchain’s role in finance, he studies behavioral finance to predict memecoin trends.
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