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Cryptocurrency bettors have significantly lowered the odds that Tesla Inc.(NASDAQ:TSLA) will commercially launch the Optimushumanoid robot in 2026.
No Optimus Launch in 2026?
Polygon(CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket is currently pricing in a 9% chance that Tesla releases the robot by Dec. 31, down 2% in a week and 15% in a month.
The odds peaked at 33% only a month ago, but have since cratered.
Musk’s Grand Vision
The odds come amid a growing interest in humanoid robots and AI technology. Tesla Optimus is a bipedal autonomous humanoid robot designed to perform repetitive, boring, or dangerous tasks.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk reiterated his ambitious vision for the robot earlier this month, saying it could eventually perform a wide range of tasks, from cooking and mowing lawns to babysitting, elder care and skilled work.
Tesla plans to spend more than $25 billion in 2026 on AI computing, robotaxis and Optimus, with spending expected to continue rising for another two to three years.
The company is converting part of its Fremont facility into an Optimus factory targeting 1 million robots annually.
Advantage for Tesla?
Shay Boloor, Futurum Equities’ chief market strategist, cited a Citizens Bank analysis projecting that Tesla’s Optimus could target a $1.7 trillion U.S. labor market over the long term.
According to the analysis, $300 billion of the market—primarily in hospitality, manufacturing, and construction—will be serviceable in the near term.
“That gives Tesla a massive advantage as the first customer because it can lower its own labor costs while proving Optimus works before selling it into the broader market,” Boloor stated.
Price Action: Tesla shares closed 5.14% higher at $362.86 on Friday. Year-to-date, the stock has plunged 19.31%.
Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings show the TSLA stock underperforming across short-, medium-, and long-term trends.
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