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A chart analyst has mapped XRP onto a 2016 pattern that ends near $23, but that same roadmap opens with months of straight losses before any rally begins. The catch sitting inside this bullish call deserves a closer look.
The Crypto Desk desk. Editor: Sam Daodu.
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Crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto says XRP (CRYPTO:XRP) is tracing its 2016 chart and has drawn a target near $23, about 15 times its price near $1.51 as of October 5, 2026. His XRP price prediction leans on what came next in that cycle, a 284% gain in March 2017.
However, the same 2016 template opens with a drop. XRP fell 7% in October 2016 and then lost ground in each of the next four months through February 2017, five losing months in a row before the rally began. So does the $23 call give holders a reason for hope, or does it ask them to ride out losses first?
EGRAG Built His $23 XRP Target With a Fibonacci Extension
EGRAG set the target with a Fibonacci extension, a chart tool that takes an earlier price swing, multiplies it by fixed ratios from the Fibonacci sequence, and projects where the next swing might end. The tool assumes markets repeat the proportions of past moves.
He also tracks two exponential moving averages, or EMAs, running averages that give more weight to recent closes. His chart puts the 20-month EMA at $1.55 and the 50-week EMA at $1.52, so XRP trades just under both lines. Traders read a close above those lines as buyers taking back control and a close below them as a weakening trend.
Both tools describe the shape of past prices. They leave out how much XRP gets used for payments and how much money flows into the token, so the $23 level is a projection drawn from geometry rather than a claim about value.
XRP Fell for Five Straight Months Before Its 2017 Rally
In EGRAG’s template, the 7% drop in October 2016 started a run of five red months that lasted through February 2017. XRP climbed 284% in March 2017 only after that stretch ended.
October history adds to the caution. XRP has fallen in 8 of its 13 Octobers, so a weak month could fit both EGRAG’s template and the coin’s usual pattern.
So a holder who points to $23 as good news is pointing to a pattern that calls for months of losses first, which raises the question ofwhere XRP could bottomahead of any talk about the top.
XRP’s $95 Billion Market Cap Makes a 2016 Repeat Far Harder
In 2016, XRP traded for less than a cent, so modest buying could move it sharply. Now XRP carries a market cap of about $95 billion across 63.1 billion coins in circulation, out of a maximum supply of 100 billion.
At $23, XRP’s market cap comes to about $1.45 trillion, close to Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO:BTC) $1.73 trillion. Even a repeat of March 2017’s 284% gain takes XRP from $1.51 to only about $5.80, roughly a quarter of EGRAG’s target.
The market around XRP has changed as well.U.S. spot XRP ETFsnow trade, treasury firms such asEvernorth hold the token, and the whole crypto market reacts toFederal Reserve decisionsin ways it did not in 2016.
Does EGRAG’s XRP Price Prediction Require a Fall First?
If the 2016 template holds, yes. EGRAG’s own analogy puts five losing months ahead of the 284% rally, and the $23 target depends on that same sequence repeating. XRP also has to clear its July 2025 record of $3.65, about 142% above its current price, before a level 15 times higher comes into view.
The first test is the October monthly close. A close above $1.55 puts XRP back over both of EGRAG’s averages, while a close below it could mirror October 2016, the first of its five red months. So does this XRP price prediction start with a gain or with five more months of losses?
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who’s spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining “the cloud” was peak innovation). Since 2018, he’s written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think “gas fees” is a typo. When he’s not writing or staring at charts, Sam’s either: – Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) – At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god – Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
Source: 247wallst.com