Can Robinhood’s Crypto.com Deal Supercharge Prediction Markets’ Growth?

Robinhood Markets HOOD is stepping up its push into prediction markets through a collaboration with Crypto.com and its standalone prediction-markets platform, OG.com. Beginning Sept. 8, HOOD started routing select football event contracts to OG.com’s CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse. As part of the agreement, HOOD will receive minority equity stakes in Crypto.com and OG.com, priced in line with Citadel Securities’ recent investment that valued Crypto.com Group at $20 billion.

The deal comes at an opportune time, as prediction markets have emerged as one of Robinhood’s fastest-growing businesses. In the second quarter of 2026, customers traded 13.6 billion event contracts, while World Cup-related activity alone exceeded 5 billion contracts. Through the first eight months of 2026, more than 30 billion contracts were traded, lifting cumulative volumes since launch to more than 45 billion.

The rapid volume growth is increasingly translating into meaningful revenues. HOOD generated $156 million in event contract revenues in the second quarter, up more than tenfold year over year and surpassing Robinhood’s quarterly equities revenues of $129 million and crypto revenues of $100 million. This highlights the growing importance of prediction markets to the company‘s revenue mix.

The Crypto.com collaboration is expected to further aid growth by adding another execution venue alongside Kalshi, ForecastEx and Rothera. A broader network of exchanges can enhance liquidity, improve pricing and expand contract availability, potentially supporting higher customer engagement. The timing is also favorable, with the professional and college football seasons underway and the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approaching, two events that could generate significant trading activity.

Robinhood’s expanding exchange network, broader product suite and large retail base should support further growth in prediction markets. However, rising competition and regulatory uncertainty could temper the pace of expansion. While the Crypto.com deal strengthens HOOD’s liquidity and product breadth, sustained momentum will hinge on customer engagement and the evolving regulatory backdrop.

HOOD’s Competitors in the Prediction Markets Business

Robinhood faces intensive competition from Interactive Brokers IBKR and Coinbase Global COIN in the prediction markets business.

Interactive Brokers has created a unified prediction-market interface spanning its ForecastEx platform, Kalshi and CME Group, with orders routed toward the best available net price. Interactive Brokers plans to add more exchanges and remains focused on economically relevant events such as elections, climate and macro indicators, while expanding weather offerings into hurricane-landfall and insurance-risk contracts.

Coinbase Global is scaling even faster. Its prediction-market contracts and revenues jumped 106% sequentially in the second quarter of 2026, pushing the business above $100 million in annualized revenues. Coinbase’s new crypto-binary experience drove roughly three times as many daily traders and four times the daily revenue versus May averages, while management plans to add combination trades.

Source: finance.yahoo.com