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Foresight News特邀专栏作者
2026-08-24 04:29
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This bull run has once again validated which market patterns?
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- Core Takeaway: Last week, the crypto market experienced a violent rebound, with Bitcoin posting a maximum single-week gain of over 26%. This rally was driven by a dual engine of shifting U.S. macro policy (expanded long-term bond repurchases) and regulatory tailwinds (Trump pushing crypto legislation), validating the market’s heavy reliance on the dollar policy cycle and cementing spot ETFs as the leading indicator for market trends. Capital flows exhibited a clear, tiered rotation path.
- Key Factors:
- Policy-Driven: The U.S. Treasury increased the single-repurchase size for long-term bonds to at least $4 billion, interpreted by the market as a dovish signal. The dollar came under pressure, funneling capital into alternative assets like Bitcoin.
- Regulatory Tailwinds: Trump met with crypto executives to push the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, and the SEC proposed a draft rule for token sales, viewed as a “legal ICO 2.0,” reducing regulatory uncertainty.
- ETF Leadership: Last week, U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw combined net inflows of $2.6 billion, the highest since October 2025, following net outflows of $392 million the prior week. Bitcoin ETF trading volume surged 219%.
- Capital Rotation: After Bitcoin led with a 22.9% gain, Ethereum rose 29.8%, with the ETH/BTC ratio recovering to 0.031. Exchange ETH supply dropped 15% within the month, with staking volume exceeding 42 million ETH.
- Altcoin Elasticity: Among the top 50 coins by market cap, ENA rose 100.75% weekly (Coinbase partnership + $1 billion FalconX facility), PUMP gained 88-99%, STX rose 82-94%, TRUMP climbed 79-91% (oversold bounce), and ZEC surged 75% to an all-time high—the only asset among the top five to reclaim its full historical drawdown.
Original author: Joe Zhou, Foresight News
After being dormant for nearly an entire year, the cryptocurrency market suddenly exploded last week.
Bitcoin surged violently from around $62,800 at the start of the week, hitting an intraday high of $79,500 on August 21, with a maximum single-week gain of over 26% — the largest weekly gain since March 2023. Voices declaring “the bull is back” are everywhere in the market.
Signals don’t ring just once, but the real test lies in whether we can accurately identify their nature. What’s more worth asking: in this rally, which assets rose with reason, and which merely followed the tide? Hidden within the answer lies the code for the next phase.
What market patterns has this bull run once again validated?
Every extreme market movement is not random noise, but a stress test of market structure. This rally has once again confirmed several clear patterns.
Pattern One: Short-to-medium-term directional turns in the crypto market are now highly dependent on swings in U.S. policy cycles.
Looking back over the past four years, several major turning points in the crypto market — whether the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, shifts in the Fed’s rate hike/cut cycles, or this time’s U.S. Treasury buyback operations — have almost all resonated in sync with the rhythm of U.S. fiscal and regulatory policy. Market pricing power is gradually shifting from crypto-native on-chain leverage cycles to macro liquidity and regulatory expectations.
This time is no exception. Attributing to news flow, the core drivers of the rally can be boiled down to two points:
First, long-duration Treasury buyback policy triggered a reversal in macro liquidity expectations. On August 19, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent announced an increase in the single-operation buyback size for 10-to-30-year long-term Treasury bonds from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, in response to the previous surge in long-end yields and the violent sell-off in long-dated Treasuries. The market quickly interpreted this as: the U.S. government is easing its own borrowing cost pressures through accommodative operations → the dollar comes under pressure and weakens → capital rotates toward alternative stores of value like gold and Bitcoin. Given Bitcoin’s high-beta risk asset characteristics, its gains were the most pronounced among comparable assets.
Second, Trump advancing crypto legislation catalyzed a recovery in risk appetite. At nearly the same time, Trump met with executives from crypto industry leaders including Coinbase, Kraken, and Ripple at the White House, publicly urging Congress to pass the CLARITY Act as soon as possible to clarify the jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC over digital assets. This move was viewed by the market as a signal of declining regulatory uncertainty, further boosting the repair of risk appetite and capital flows.
One additional point worth noting: on August 18, the SEC also proposed new draft rules for public crypto token sales, which the market viewed as a positive step toward clear rules for token issuance. The market has dubbed it the “legal ICO 2.0.” This suggests that the old wild ICO model is gradually “evolving,” and today’s ICO will operate under an entirely new regulatory framework featuring issuance caps, disclosure requirements, and exit mechanisms.
Pattern Two: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have become the market’s bellwether, consistently leading the entire crypto market.
The spot Bitcoin ETF moving ahead of the market and leading the direction of the trend has become one of the most prominent structural features of the crypto market over the past two years — a pattern repeatedly validated across multiple market cycles.
Take this rally as an example — the crypto market’s full-scale breakout began on August 19, yet spot Bitcoin ETFs had already shown a steady, “unwavering” pattern of net buying several days earlier, precisely timing the ignition point of this rally.
From a data perspective, last week (the week ending August 21), U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs combined for net inflows of $2.6 billion, the highest weekly figure since October 2025. Among them, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $1.9 billion, with weekly trading volume surging from $6.9 billion the prior week to $22.1 billion — an increase of 219% — while total net assets rose from $76.6 billion to $96.1 billion.
Spot Ethereum ETFs also performed strongly, with net inflows of $697.2 million last week, the highest since the week of October 3, 2025; weekly trading volume grew from $1.9 billion to $6.9 billion, an increase of 259.4%.
Both ETF categories recorded their largest single-week net inflows since 2026. In contrast, the prior week saw combined net outflows of $392 million from the two ETF categories.
The simultaneous surge in volume for both ETF categories not only confirms the large-scale return of institutional capital but also further solidifies the spot ETF’s market position as a “leading indicator” for this bull cycle.
Pattern Three: A violent Bitcoin breakout almost invariably drives a broad rally across the entire crypto sector — from major coins to altcoins to trending Meme coins — forming a clear capital rotation transmission chain.
This cycle has once again validated this iron law: Bitcoin breaks out first, then capital cascades outward in stages, with Ethereum, quality altcoins, and trending Meme coins following in sequence, with gains amplifying in a stepwise fashion.
Data is the most powerful proof — Ethereum rose nearly 30% in a single week, ENA surged nearly 100%, and “Niu Lai,” the newly emerging Meme coin on the BNB Chain ecosystem, gained 30.3% on August 21 alone, with its market cap briefly touching $70 million. From large-cap blue chips to small-cap high-beta plays, no one was absent from this rally feast.
Bitcoin is the ignition point, but what truly electrifies market sentiment is always the altcoins and Meme assets with far more dramatic multiples. The gradient distribution of gains precisely maps out the complete route of this capital回流.
In the crypto bull run, who has rebounded the hardest?
In this rally, Bitcoin lit the fuse first, but the true explosive potential has been concentrated in the relay from major coins to altcoins.
Ethereum started from around $1,900 last week, hit a high of $2,546, and posted a weekly gain of 29.8%, clearly outperforming Bitcoin’s 22.9%. The ETH/BTC ratio recovered to around 0.031, and market cap returned above $280 billion.
Behind Ethereum’s stronger elasticity, in addition to the common drivers of macro liquidity and short-squeeze dynamics, three unique factors are resonating:
First, substantial inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs. Last week, spot Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of approximately $697 million, the strongest week since October 2025.
Second, exchange supply continues to tighten. Data shows that Ethereum held on exchanges fell from approximately 7.7 million ETH in early June to around 6.54 million by mid-August, a decline of about 15%. Meanwhile, over 42 million ETH has been staked, and the available tradable circulating supply continues to shrink, significantly amplifying the price impact of buying pressure.
Third, positive regulatory developments. On August 18, the SEC proposed new draft rules for public crypto token sales, which the market interpreted as a constructive step toward clear rules for token issuance, further boosting risk appetite for the Ethereum ecosystem.
Bitcoin up 22%, Ethereum up nearly 30% — that’s already impressive enough. But in the world of altcoins, there are even more aggressive players.
According to data from multiple platforms, among the top 50 altcoins by market cap last week (through August 23), the five with the highest gains were: ENA, PUMP, Stacks, Trump, and Zcash.
First: ENA (Ethena). Weekly gain of 100.75%, overall market champion
ENA topped last week’s crypto gainers with a 100.75% weekly increase. This once again confirms the market’s general perception of it — ENA has historically been one of the highest-beta assets during market rebounds, and every time the market warms up, it delivers gains far exceeding the average.
The core catalysts for the surge are twofold: First, Coinbase announced a strategic partnership with Ethena, planning to provide products based on the USDe stablecoin to over 100 million users, and for the first time investing in Ethena by purchasing ENA tokens through the open market; Second, FalconX launched a $1 billion secured warehouse facility, deploying USDe’s underlying assets into institutional lending, significantly expanding the protocol’s business scope.
However, it’s worth noting that ENA’s current price is still approximately 89.2% below its all-time high — the gains are fierce, but there’s still a long way to go before fully recovering lost ground.
Second: PUMP (Pump.fun). Weekly gain of 88-99%, a victory for the Meme launchpad
PUMP rose between 88% and 99% last week, with market cap surpassing $2 billion.
As the most active Meme coin launchpad on the Solana ecosystem, Pump.fun directly benefited from this round of Meme coin mania — new tokens are constantly emerging on the platform, and surging trading volume directly pushed up the price of the platform’s token, PUMP. That said, PUMP remains approximately 39.7% below its all-time high.
Third: STX (Stacks). Weekly gain of 82-94%, Bitcoin ecosystem narrative reignited
STX rose approximately 82% to 94% last week, making it the standout asset in the Bitcoin Layer 2 ecosystem.
STX’s rally is closely tied to the rekindling of the Bitcoin ecosystem narrative. As Bitcoin broke above $77,000, market attention toward Bitcoin ecosystem scaling solutions has risen anew, and Stacks, as one of the most mature BTC Layer 2 projects, directly benefited. However, STX’s current price is still about 94% below its all-time high — the farthest from its peak among the top five.
Fourth: TRUMP (Official Trump). Weekly gain of 79-91%, the political Meme rebound
TRUMP rose between 79% and 91% last week. As a political Meme coin themed around Trump, its rebound resonated with the news of Trump advancing crypto legislation.
This Meme coin themed around former U.S. President Trump had been under sustained pressure due to criticism from U.S. lawmakers and Nansen data revealing that nearly one million investors had accumulated losses of approximately $3.8 billion. However, this rally is more of a sentiment repair after overselling than an improvement in fundamentals — TRUMP’s current price remains approximately 96.4% below its all-time high.
Fifth: ZEC (Zcash). Weekly gain of 75%, hitting an all-time high
Zcash rose 75.15% last week, trading at $851 and setting a new all-time high during the week.
ZEC is the only coin among the top five to hit a new all-time high, and the only asset to have fully recovered all historical losses during this rally. As a veteran privacy coin, Zcash’s strong performance reflects a characteristic of this rebound — established projects are also attracting capital flows, proving that it’s not just new narratives that can lead gains. The privacy sector tends to command an additional safe-haven premium in environments of rising macro uncertainty.
Meme coins: The pinnacle of sentiment, maximum elasticity
Beyond that, the Meme coin sector has once again proven its status as the elasticity king in a bull market. “Niu Lai,” the newly emerging Meme coin on the BNB Chain ecosystem, gained 30.3% on August 21 alone, with market cap briefly touching $70 million; Book of Meme (BOME) on Solana posted a weekly gain of up to 95.57%, also becoming one of the best-performing assets among Meme coins this time.
From Ethereum’s steady leadership to AAVE’s王者归来, to the explosive multiples of ENA and Meme coins — this rally clearly outlines a capital transmission path: Bitcoin sets the stage, major coins carry the performance, and altcoins and Meme coins take the spotlight. The gradient distribution of gains is a complete portrait of market sentiment transitioning from caution to euphoria.
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