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Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Risks Drop to $71K if This Rounded Top Confirms
By: Yashu Gola
Updated: Sep 14, 2026, 09:54 GMT+00:00
Live PriceBitcoin
Key Points:
- Bitcoin is forming a potential rounded top that could target roughly $71,000 if support near $76,000 breaks.
- BTC’s latest recovery is being driven more by perpetual futures demand, while spot demand remains negative.
- A rebound above $79,500–$80,000 would weaken the bearish setup, while stronger spot buying would improve the bullish case.
- +1.72%Bitcoin Forecast
Bitcoin (BTC) could fall toward $71,000 in the coming sessions if a potential rounded-top pattern on its four-hour chart confirms with a breakdown below key support.
Bitcoin Rounded Top Puts $71K in Play
Bitcoin’s four-hour chart is showing a potential rounded-top formation after its sharp rally from around $63,000 in mid-August.
BTC climbed into the $80,000–$81,500 region before its upside momentum began fading. Since then, price action has gradually curved lower, creating the dome-like structure typically associated with a rounded top.
Bitcoin is still holding above its main support area around $76,000–$76,300, which effectively acts as the setup’s neckline. A decisive four-hour close below this zone would increase the likelihood that the rounded top has completed.
The pattern measures roughly $5,000–$5,300 from its peak to the neckline. Subtracting that distance from a potential breakdown near $76,000 produces a downside target around $70,900–$71,000.
As of Sept. 14, Monday, BTC was trading near $77,870 on the chart, while its four-hour relative strength index (RSI) stood around 54.5, keeping momentum broadly neutral.
Bitcoin was also trading around its 20- (green), 50- (red), and 100-period (purple) exponential moving averages (EMAs), highlighting the ongoing battle between bulls and bears.
A recovery above roughly $79,500–$80,000 would weaken the bearish setup, while a move back above the recent highs would largely invalidate it.
Weak Spot Demand Adds Weight to Bearish Setup
Bitcoin’s demand profile also offers limited support for the bullish case.
CryptoQuant’s 30-day demand-growth data shows perpetual futures demand remaining positive in September while spot demand stays negative.
As a result, overall Bitcoin demand remains below zero despite continued strength among derivatives traders.
That suggests much of the recent buying pressure is coming from leveraged futures positioning rather than stronger spot accumulation.
Such a structure can make rallies more fragile because futures-driven demand can disappear quickly if traders close positions or get liquidated during a decline.
A somewhat similar divergence appeared around January and February 2026, when futures demand briefly recovered before broader demand weakened alongside Bitcoin’s price.
The current setup does not guarantee the same outcome.
Still, unless spot demand improves, a confirmed break below $76,000 would make the rounded-top target near $71,000 increasingly relevant.
About the Author
Yashu GolaSenior Cryptocurrencies Analyst
Yashu Gola is a crypto journalist and analyst with expertise in digital assets, blockchain, and macroeconomics. He provides in-depth market analysis, technical chart patterns, and insights on global economic impacts. His work bridges traditional finance and crypto, offering actionable advice and educational content. Passionate about blockchain’s role in finance, he studies behavioral finance to predict memecoin trends.
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Source: www.fxempire.com