Bitget CEO Says Bitcoin Likely to End 2026 Within $20,000 of Current Price

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Bitget CEO Gracy Chen said Bitcoin will likely end 2026 within $10,000 to $20,000 of its current price, citing interest rates and macroeconomic conditions as the primary constraints on further upside. Speaking on Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets podcast, Chen said it is difficult to predict whether BTC will finish the year above or below $70,000. She also expressed skepticism that the U.S. government will begin actively purchasing Bitcoin for its Strategic Bitcoin Reserve before the end of President Donald Trump’s term, arguing that converting the reserve from seized assets into an active buying program would require significant policy debate. Positioning on the Kalshi prediction market shows traders similarly expecting a subdued finish for Bitcoin this year rather than a sharp rally or steep decline.

Key Elements

Bitcoin’s recent rally may not translate into a decisive year-end breakout who expects the cryptocurrency to finish 2026 within a relatively narrow band around its current trading range. Her outlook aligns with positioning on the regulated prediction market Kalshi, where traders are also leaning toward a subdued finish for the asset

Speaking on Cointelegraph’s Trade Secrets podcast, Chen said it is difficult to predict whether Bitcoin (BTC) will end the year above or below $70,000, particularly because monetary policy could turn less favorable for risk assets. Higher interest rates would increase yields available from traditional assets and could reduce investor appetite for cryptocurrencies.

“If any of that happens, the price should go down, at least theoretically,” Chen said. Her base case is less directional. “My guess is maybe around the same range,” she added, describing a forecast that Bitcoin could end the year $10,000 to $20,000 above or below its current price — what she characterized as the “more responsible” expectation.

The view contrasts with more aggressive bullish forecasts that assume Bitcoin’s latest advance will extend into another sustained leg higher. Chen instead sees the asset’s growing connection with traditional finance as making interest rates, liquidity and economic conditions increasingly important to its performance.

Macro Conditions Take Center Stage

Bitcoin has become more closely connected to conventional financial markets as institutional ownership, exchange-traded products and corporate holdings have grown. That gives macroeconomic conditions a larger role in determining demand than during earlier crypto cycles dominated primarily by retail traders.

Higher rates can pressure Bitcoin in several ways. They increase the return available from cash and government debt, raise financing costs and can reduce liquidity available for speculative assets. Lower rates can have the opposite effect by making non-yielding and higher-risk investments comparatively more attractive.

This means Bitcoin investors may need to watch central bank expectations alongside crypto-specific factors such as ETF flows, corporate purchases and network activity. A strong cryptocurrency narrative may not be enough to sustain gains if monetary conditions become materially tighter.

Skepticism on Federal Bitcoin Purchases

Chen is also doubtful that the U.S. government will begin directly purchasing Bitcoin for its national reserve before the end of President Donald Trump’s term, despite the administration’s favorable approach toward digital assets. She called such a move unlikely within the next two years.

The Trump administration established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve in March 2025 using Bitcoin already forfeited to the federal government. Officials were also instructed to study budget-neutral methods that could potentially increase the government’s holdings without requiring additional taxpayer spending.

The U.S. government currently controls an estimated 328,372 BTC, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET, with much of that inventory originating from criminal seizures and asset forfeitures rather than purchases in the open market.

Chen argued that converting the reserve from a stockpile of seized assets into an active government purchasing program would represent a much larger policy decision. Such a move could require debate among lawmakers and political parties over the government’s role in owning and accumulating a volatile financial asset.

“From a policy perspective, it’s probably unlikely,” Chen said. “I just don’t see it coming right now.”

Direct federal purchases would differ substantially from retaining Bitcoin the government already owns. Buying BTC would create a newitcoin is being treated as a strategic reserve asset rather than simply property obtained through enforcement actions

Such a policy could also affect expectations beyond the immediate amount purchased. Traders would likely assess whether other governments might adopt similar strategies, potentially increasing competition for a fixed supply of Bitcoin.

Without direct purchases, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve has a more limited effect on market demand. Keeping forfeited Bitcoin reduces the possibility that those holdings will be sold, but it does not create the recurring buying pressure that an accumulation program could produce.

Market Signals Align

The Kalshi prediction market offers a real-time gauge of collective sentiment through contract pricing tied to specific price thresholds. When traders cluster around an outcome close to the present price, it typically signals expectations of consolidation rather than a decisive breakout in either direction.

The convergence of a market-based signal and an executive’s public view does not guarantee any particular outcome. Prediction markets reflect the balance of bets placed at a given moment and can shift quickly as new information arrives. Executive commentary, similarly, reflects one individual’s read on conditions rather than a forecast with binding weight.

Still, the alignment is notable given how differently each signal is generated. Kalshi’s pricing emerges from decentralized wagering by many participants risking real money, while Chen’s view comes from an industry insider overseeing a major exchange’s operations and order flow. Both point toward the same general expectation: a Bitcoin market that settles rather than swings sharply before year-end.

If sentiment continues to reflect expectations of a range-bound Bitcoin, traders and institutions may adjust positioning toward strategies suited for lower volatility rather than directional bets. Options pricing and hedging activity could shift accordingly as year-end approaches. A widely shared expectation of consolidation might also reduce speculative momentum trades that typically amplify price swings in either direction.

For Bitcoin through the rest of 2026, monetary policy and private-sector demand remain the more immediate variables. ETF flows, corporate treasury buying and changes in interest-rate expectations could have a greater effect on prices than speculation about federal purchases if the administration stops short of actively adding Bitcoin to its reserve.

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Source: finance.biggo.com