Bitcoin’s Structure Is Promising but $83,000 Remains the Key Level

Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) closed last week near its 50-week moving average, signaling improving market structure, but a lack of strong spot demand leaves $83,000 as key level for bullish confirmation.

Is BTC’s Bear Case Weakening?

Benjamin Cowen highlighted on Monday that Bitcoin pushed to roughly $82,292, establishing a short-term higher high, but remains below its May peak and therefore has yet to break the broader bearish market structure.

He said the length of time Bitcoin holds around the 50-week average now matters.

Bitcoin’s chances of a breakout improve the longer it holds near the 50-week moving average, as bear market rejections typically happen quickly.

“Multiple closes above the 50-week moving average typically signifies the end of the bear market,” Cowen said.

That makes the coming sessions particularly important for bears.

Macro Could Decide The Next Move

Bitcoin’s pullback followed stronger U.S. labor data, which raised rate-hike expectations, with upcoming inflation data likely to be the next catalyst.

Cowen said Bitcoin’s 40% rebound does not rule out another decline, as similar rallies occurred in past bear markets.

However, if BTC continues holding near the 50-week moving average, the bearish case could weaken quickly.

Spot Demand Still Needs To Confirm

CryptoQuant predicts that Bitcoin needs sustained spot buying to absorb available supply and push decisively through the $82,000 to $83,000 zone.

However, Sept. 8 data paints a constructive but incomplete picture.

• Bitcoin ETF holdings continue rising, large investors are accumulating and a notable buy wall has formed around current prices.
• Binance reserves remain elevated around 685,000-687,000 BTC, leaving substantial potential sell-side supply on the market.
• Seven-day average exchange net inflows have also climbed to roughly 593 BTC, while stablecoin inflows are increasing.

That means both available Bitcoin supply and potential purchasing power are rising at the same time.

Bitcoin leverage has eased, but elevated Binance open interest suggests the recovery is not fully spot-driven. Short-term holder profits and older coin movements also raise the risk of renewed selling.

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