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Producer prices stayed hoton Thursday morning. Gold, the Nasdaq-100 and <a href="https://xpertsstudio.com/bitcoin-price-prediction-can-btc-reclaim-80000-after-a-cpi-head/” title=”Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can BTC Reclaim $80,000 After a CPI Head”>bitcoin each fell more than 1%. The 30-year Treasury yieldclosed at 5.37%. That wasits highest closesince Treasury resumed selling the bond in 2006.
Three of those four are supposed to move that way on a day like that. Investors buy gold precisely because it should theoretically hold up when the rest of the list doesn’t.
Investors have spent this cycle owning bitcoin and gold as separate insurance policies against the same worry: that governments keep borrowing and paper money keeps losing value. If they respond differently, a portfolio survives being wrong about which works. But that strategy depends on the two moving apart, and over the last six months they have done the opposite. Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and its correlation with the Nasdaq-100 have swapped places.
This issue measures how far that has gone, tests it on the only days a hedge is ever judged on, and works out what it does to a portfolio holding both.
What the Correlation Actually Says
Over the last six months, bitcoin has stopped behaving like a technology stock and started behaving like gold.
To test that, we pulled daily prices for bitcoin, gold and the Nasdaq-100 going back to 2019 and measured how closely each pair moved on the days both markets were open. Bitcoin’s four-month correlation with gold now sits at 0.56, against about 0.22 in March. Its correlation with the Nasdaq-100 went the other way over the same months, from 0.54 to 0.36.
That is the highest reading since our data begins in 2019. The previous peak was set in November 2020. As recently as January,gold rose while bitcoin fellon turmoil in Japan’s bond market.
Published readings this monthstart at 0.50, and Bitwisecalls the current level the highest in nearly six years. Few of them say whether they were built from daily returns or price levels, over what window, or against which gold contract, and each of those choices can move the answer.
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Source: unchainedcrypto.com