Bitcoin’s $80K Rally Is a Trap, Analyst Warns of $45K Drop

The analyst’s projected route runs from $77,000 to $67,000 then $55,000 before a final leg to between $45,000 and $48,000.
ByWayne Jones

Bitcoin (BTC) spent this past week ripping from the low $60,000s to just under $80,000, and to trader Nonzee, none of it looks like conviction.

They are calling the move a trap built on forced buying rather than real demand, and say the next leg is down, not up.

The Case for a Distribution Phase, Not a New Bull Run

Nonzee’s argument starts with the size of the squeeze, where more than $3.1 billion in short positions were wiped out during the run, and Bitcoin alone was responsible for roughly $1.65 billion of that figure. In their view, that is what actually pushed the price higher, not a change in sentiment.

“That was not a reversal. It was a liquidity squeeze,” they wrote.

The trader tied the timing to two catalysts: Trump putting the CLARITY Act back in the headlines and the Treasury Department increasing its long-term bond buybacks. Both, they argue, forced shorts out and pulled fresh longs into a market that was already stretched thin.

Their read on where things stand now is that the $70,000 fair value gap, a pricing gap left behind during an earlier fast move that traders watch for a return visit, has been filled, the short squeeze has run its course, and FOMO buying is happening in real time.

Next will come distribution, then the selloff, in their framing, with a downside path running from $77,000 to $67,000, then $55,000, before a final leg down to between $48,000 and $45,000.

Bitcoin was trading around $78,000 at the time of writing, up roughly 2% on the day and about 22% over the past week It has swung between $76,000 and $79,000 in the last 24 hours alone. Still, the OG crypto remains 39% below its all-time high of around $126,000, set back in October 2025, and it is still down 33% on a one-year basis despite the bounce

Source: cryptopotato.com