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Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) and XRP(CRYPTO: XRP) are flashing a bearish “Bart Simpson pattern” as analysts warn the sharp August rally could fully reverse if key levels fail to hold.
How the Bart Simpson Pattern Forms
According to CoinDesk, the Bart Simpson pattern has three phases. First comes a sudden sharp price spike that tricks buyers into chasing momentum.
Then price moves sideways in a tight range as volume drops off. Finally, price snaps back sharply in the opposite direction of the original spike.
Put together on a chart, the shape looks unmistakably like Bart’s spiked hairline.
The pattern first appeared in crypto in 2015 when Bitcoin traded at $229 and has not been widely discussed in at least three years.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen flagged the formation in his X post on Sep. 1, reigniting the conversation.
Bitcoin and XRP Enter the Pullback Phase
For Bitcoin, the spike began August 19 at $64,420 and ran to nearly $80,700 by Aug. 25 before stalling.
Bitcoin now trades around $76,500, with the flat range phase giving way to what looks like the beginning of a snap back.
For XRP, the spike began the same day, climbing from $1 to $1.52 by Aug. 22. XRP has since drifted lower to around $1.32, tracing a similar shape on the chart.
Analysts Flag Deeper Downside Risks
Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan told CoinDesk that a true Bart Simpson completion requires a 20% pullback, though he doubts Bitcoin gets there given how much deeper and more institutional the market has become since these patterns last appeared.
For XRP he is less confident, noting that a sharp retracement toward where the rally started would fit the pattern cleanly.
“If it retraces sharply toward where the rally began, XRP won’t just be a relic of 2017; it will have the haircut to match,” Greenspan said.
New Market Trading CEO Frank Hepworth told CoinDesk that the setup reads as a classic distribution pattern, where large holders sell into retail buying.
Bitcoin’s repeated failure to clear the 50-week moving average near $81,000 is the key warning sign, with Hepworth projecting a drop toward $70,000 or $58,000 if selling accelerates.
For XRP, he expects the token to underperform Bitcoin significantly on any correction, with downside targets ranging from $0.46 to $1.21 depending on how deep Bitcoin’s pullback goes.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst AxelAdlerJr noted that long-term holder distribution climbed 62% to 282,000 BTC between Aug. 18 and Aug. 28, the highest reading since early 2026, putting real supply pressure behind the technical warning signals.
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