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Quick Read
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Bitcoin bottomed 13 to 71 days after each of the past three midterms but in 2026 hit its low 125 days before the election.
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold $105 billion in net assets, enabling daily Wall Street inflows that may have shifted the bottom earlier.
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Bitcoin must hold $57,718 to confirm an early cycle bottom; a drop below $60,000 before January 2027 would revive the traditional post-midterm timing.
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In the last three election cycles, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has consistently bottomed shortly after U.S. midterm elections. Each time, the Bitcoin midterm bottom arrived between 13 and 71 days after voters cast their ballots. This time, however, Bitcoin broke that pattern early, hitting a low of $57,718 on July 1, well ahead of the November 3 midterms and 125 days before the election.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $81,234, about 40% higher than its July low, even after a 2.8% decline in October. Longtime Bitcoin advocate Michael Saylor expressed on X (formerly Twitter) on October 13, “I think we hit the bottom slightly below $60,000.” This raises the question: did the usual post-midterm recovery start months early, or is another drop still ahead?
Bitcoin’s Midterm Bottom Has Repeated for Three Cycles
The trend has held for three cycles since 2014. In the 2014 midterm, which took place on November 4, Bitcoin bottomed out 71 days later on January 14, 2015. Similarly, during the 2018 midterm elections held on November 6, Bitcoin hit its lowest point 39 days later on December 15.
During the 2022 midterms on November 8, Bitcoin bottomed just 13 days later on November 21. This drop occurred while the market was still struggling to recover from the FTX collapse.
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While these three examples suggest a pattern, they’re a small sample, and investors should be cautious about treating this trend as a rule. Both Bitcoin’s halving cycle and the U.S. election cycle operate on four-year timelines, so any overlap may be coincidental.
Midterm Results Often Release Money Investors Held Back
Midterm elections maintain the current president but determine which party controls Congress, significantly influencing policies on taxes, spending, and crypto regulations. Large investors often hold off on moving ahead of the elections because outcomes are unpredictable. Once the votes are counted, the uncertainty decreases, allowing funds that had been on the sidelines to flow back into the markets.
Source: finance.yahoo.com