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Original author: ChandlerZ, Foresight News
From August 17 to 23, Bitcoin rose from $62,818 to $77,593 marking a weekly increase of $14,775—the largest single-week dollar gain in Bitcoin’s history. In percentage terms, the 23.5% rise ranks 41st out of 840 weekly candles since July 2010, but it is the highest weekly gain since March 2023
As the price base of Bitcoin rises, a gain ranking only 41st in historical percentage terms can now generate amounts never seen before.
As of August 28, Bitcoin reversed downward after breaking above $81,500 and continues to fluctuate near the $80,000 level. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have become a key indicator of whether this rally can be sustained; according to daily totals from Farside Investors, net inflows totaled $2.8019 billion over eight consecutive trading days from August 17 to 26, bringing the cumulative net inflow to approximately $3.282 billion as of August 26.
Glassnode has divided this market cycle into two phases: the short squeeze on August 19 triggered the upward move, followed by spot funding from ETF inflows, declining exchange balances, and increased holdings across wallet sizes. Between August 14 and 25, BTC-denominated open interest in futures contracts fell from 645,760 BTC to 587,584 BTC, a decline of approximately 9.0%, reaching its lowest level in nearly five months. During the same period, open interest backed by BTC and other crypto assets as margin dropped to around 52,000 BTC, accounting for just 11% of total futures open interest, with cash and stablecoin margins now dominating.
In addition, the current perpetual contract funding rate is mostly close to neutral, indicating that closed short positions have not been immediately replaced by a large number of leveraged long positions.
Based on existing evidence, this rally is supported by genuine buying pressure, and $80,000 remains under pressure testing. Short-term debate centers on whether the supply zone between $81,000 and $86,000 can be absorbed, while medium-term debate focuses on whether this rally represents a cycle reversal or merely a rapid recovery within a bear market framework.
On-chain positioning and order book point to $81,000 to $86,000
On-chain data shows that the $80,000 level has formed one of the most concentrated resistance zones in its history. According to Glassnode’s Entity-Adjusted Realized Price Distribution (URPD), nearly 8% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is clustered in the $80,000 to $82,000 range, with alone at $80,000 accounting for approximately 5% of all holdings—the highest concentration of any price level. This means that if the price returns to this region, a large number of investors who bought at these levels will return to their cost basis, potentially triggering concentrated selling and forming what is known as a supply wall.
$78,000 is also a significant level, holding approximately 3.7% of the supply, while $82,000 ranks as the fourth most concentrated price level. Investors who accumulated positions during the 2024–2025 rally are now waiting for an opportunity to break even after the price correction from late 2025 to early 2026. Historical patterns show that when price returns to areas with heavy concentration of positions, selling pressure from short-term holders often amplifies resistance.
Indicators tracked solely by Glassnode show that the average cost basis for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs also falls within the $80,000 to $82,000 range. As ETFs are among the most significants has a substantial impact on price. When the asset price approaches this “break-even line,” some institutional or retail investors may choose to redeem or sell, further intensifying selling pressure in this region
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains below the 50-week moving average (currently around $81,081) and has failed to sustainably reclaim this level since November 2025. Historically, after breaking above this long-term trend line in May 2020 and March 2023, Bitcoin initiated multi-month bull markets. Therefore, whether Bitcoin can now hold above $81,000 is seen as a key signal for a potential shift in medium-term market strength.
However, the range between $60,000 and $63,000 also concentrates over 6% of the supply, and this area successfully transformed into strong support for most of 2026.
The institution believes that Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture in the battle between bulls and bears. If bulls can successfully break through the “triple resistance zone” of $80,000 to $82,000 with increased buying pressure and sustain trading above the 50-week moving average, it could unlock potential for further upside, mirroring historical bull market patterns following breakthroughs of long-term moving averages. Conversely, if multiple attempts to rally fail, it may trigger panic selling among short-term holders, causing prices to retreat to the support zone around $75,000 or lower to find equilibrium.
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September has long been one of the weakest months for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging a return of approximately -0.8% over the past 50 years. Bitcoin experienced negative returns in September for six consecutive years from 2017 to 2022, but has posted gains in September for the past three consecutive years—2023, 2024, and 2025—indicating that this seasonal pattern is weakening.
In 2026, combined with the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. midterm elections, volatility may rise, prompting investors to reduce their risk exposure. The key question is whether seasonal adjustments will evolve into broad risk aversion; attention should be paid to ETF fund flows and spot BTC demand. If risk-off sentiment spreads across the entire market, Bitcoin will face downward pressure; conversely, if ETF and spot demand remain strong, the traditional September pattern may be broken once again.
BTC has reclaimed the 50-day, 100-day, 200-day, and 200-week moving averages within four days. K33 regards January and October 2023 as the closest historical analogs, noting that record short squeezes, renewed trading activity, and rotation into scarce assets resemble the early stages of past cyclical bull markets.
The low point of this cycle may have already occurred, and the market is more likely to remain range-bound over the next two to three months. BTC may approach $80,000, but it will be difficult to sustainably trade above that level; a more sustained move toward $100,000 would require weaker employment data that significantly lowers market expectations for interest rates.
The bottom formation of Bitcoin has entered a later stage; sustained trading above the $69,000 short-term holder cost line will improve local market structure. A breakout and sustained hold above the $76,000 true market average, accompanied by improving capital flows and market participation, will confirm the return of macro risk appetite and signal the end of the bear market.
Traders: “Set 10 Major Goals First”:
I’ve already reclaimed two-thirds of my position in the $78,000 to $79,800 range. It’s unlikely to see a meaningful pullback before reaching $100,000. We’ll hit $100,000 very soon.
Founder and CIO of MN Capital: Michaël van de Poppe:
The uptrend may last longer than expected, and we could see Bitcoin pushed to at least $82,700, potentially reaching $90,000. Bitcoin is currently in a solid consolidation range. While markets are always dynamic, given the current upward momentum, another test of the highs appears inevitable. Any price below $74,000 presents an excellent entry opportunity.
Source: www.kucoin.com